PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 59 (+4)
After our piece this morning and the “Smeargate” developments during the day the money has been going against Labour on the spread betting markets – where really serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at at the election as though they were stocks and shares.
After a day of some activity the Sporting Index spread moved up by two seats on the Tories and declined by three seats on Labour. The resulting general election outcome based on the mid-point suggests a Tory majority of 59 seats – which is just one seat below its peak.
There was good news for spread punters with the arrival back on the market of Extrabet – which is IGIndex trading under a new guise. It’s first prices for some time offered what appeared to be bargains for sharp-eyed gamblers. It opened with a four seat difference compared with SportingIndex. This soon changed.
I have now become a Labour seller with contracts at 226 and 228 seats. Today the government has looked terrible and it is becoming harder to envisage the circumstances in which they can avoid defeat.