The voters say I can’t get no satisfaction with the Tories
TSE
Why I have doubts about Labour winning a majority
I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts. My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to…
Bad news for Liz Truss fans, all three of them
Back in February talk emerged about Liz Truss making a comeback and looking to regain the Tory leadership, I still have my doubts on such a comeback and this polling just reinforces my view given as just 7% think her premiership went well which is the same number of Brits also say they have seen a UFO. I know parties do stupid things in opposition (see the leaderships of Iain Duncan Smith and Jeremy Corbyn as most infamous examples) but…
Johnson’s mayoral rule changes make a CON London victory more likely
Speculation has already started about whether the Tories have a chance of regaining power in London. One thing that looks set to make the Tory task a lot easier are the electoral charges that Boris Johnson made when he was PM. Essentially Boris scrapped the old supplementary vote system to First Pass the Post. Under the old system candidates of the left would hope to benefit from the second platforms choices of Lib Dem, Greens and others at that end…
How Corbyn could give the Mayoralty to the Tories
The Mid Beds betting gets tighter
As most people will know I am a Lib Dem and that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election. What is intriguing about the current contest is that you can make out a case for Labour, the Tory or the Lib Dems to come out on top. I cannot recall a by-election in modern times which was effectively a three horse race. Given the proximity of the General Election then all the…
Another Commons by-election in the offing
Wikipedia notes: The former MP, Chris Pincher, a former Deputy Chief Whip, was involved in a controversy following allegations of sexual misconduct. Pincher resigned as Deputy Chief Whip on 30 June 2022, and he was suspended as a Conservative MP after allegations arose that he sexually assaulted two men. Further allegations were made in July, which pre-dated his appointment by Boris Johnson, and Johnson originally denied that he knew of the complaints. It was later revealed Johnson had been aware, and many…
The SNP no longer top party in Scotland
Above is the latest Scottish poll from R&W and as can be seen the SNP are now running neck and neck with LAB. Given the proximity of the general election, this could be highly significant especially as Scotland could provide a major source of LAB gains in its effort to form the next government. To put this into context currently just one of the constituencies north of the border was held by Labour at GE2015 In the aftermath of the…