As most people will know I am a Lib Dem and that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election.

What is intriguing about the current contest is that you can make out a case for Labour, the Tory or the Lib Dems to come out on top. I cannot recall a by-election in modern times which was effectively a three horse race.

Given the proximity of the General Election then all the main parties are going to throw everything into this battle which makes it quite a difficult call.

I think candidate choice here is going to play a enormous amount and that Labour would be in a stronger position if they had gone for someone local rather than a Councillor from Walthamstow in East London.

The Tories have chosen the police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire while the Lib Dems have gone with a local Councillor

There’s an independent who could do well who is the chairman of one of the local authorities in the constituency.

So far I have not had a bet.

The betting chart above is from Smarkets

Mike Smithson