Ed Davey’s party might have been smashed in the Stop Corbyn Tory surge at GE2019 but they have had one of their best parliaments ever in terms of winning Westminster by-elections. They’ve taken three seats (two of them from third place) from the Tories and have a great chance of gaining another in Mid Bedfordshire if Nadine is made a peer in BoJo’s resignation honours. Their target at the general election surely must be to become the third party at…
It is hard to see what has happened in the past week to explain the shift apart from the fracas with the Home Secretary and Sunak’s decision not to sack her. He came out of that affair not very well. The general election betting remains pretty static with punters making it a 54% chance that there will be a LAB overall majority – that is 326 seats or more. Mike Smithson
Brexit is being looked at even more negatively The above is from YouGov and has the latest view on Brexit. The data I always look to in Brexit polling is the one here on the far right on the table – what the C2DE split is. These, of course, were always regarded as the big drivers of the referendum outcome and have tended to remain supportive. But that has changed. Look now and 55% think it has been more of…
Does Rishi only look good because his two immediate predecessors were so rubbish? We are seven months into Rishi Sunak’s premiership and we have enough information to start making judgments. For me one of his biggest flaws is his ability to overpromise and underdeliver, we see it with his boat pledges, but most egregiously we see it with the basket of deplorables he appointed to his cabinet. The country have judged him on for appointing people with huge red flags…
Like others I think Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next election, thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn. As we get closer to the election, particularly if the polls tighten, the focus will be on what type of government Starmer will try and form. If the Tories are planning on revisiting their greatest hits then the tweet from Keiran Pedley shows why it will be ineffective and…
I have been very struck by this from YouGov on how backers of the Tories and LAB trust or distrust different news outlets. The ones that surprise me most are the Daily Express and Daily Mail which are both distrusted by backers of both main parties. On the other side of the coin it is interesting to note how Channel 4 news has net trust positives with both LAB and CON voters. The Sun has the worst figures being distrusted…
It was always going to be the case surely that support for the monarchy would fall off a bit following the death of the Queen. She had a very special appeal built up over the decades and this was something that she could not pass on to her firstborn. The cost and sheer extravagance of the Coronation at a time when the vast majority of the Kings subjects were having to tighten their belts was inevitably going to be difficult…
But he’s still a 25% chance in the betting The big development in the 2024 White House race has been the expected announcement by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that he was in fact standing for the presidency. This was hardly a surprise that has had almost exactly no impact on the betting. It has had an impact on his fundraising. NYT reports that he raised $8.2 million in his first 24 hours as a presidential candidate – a huge sum…