Ipsos-MORI WESTMINSTER: CON 40(-1) LAB 18(-10) LD 18 (4) The “others” break down: * Scottish/Welsh national: 4% * Greens: 6% * UKIP: 7% * BNP: 4% * Other: 3% It must be remembered that MORI have a very strict filter on their headline figures and ONLY include those who are 100% certain to vote. This can have the effect of the pollster showing quite turbulent findings. Clearly, at the moment, Labour supporters have little certainty to vote – hence the…
YouGov Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election. The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop…
Why are returning officers being stricter? I’ve been getting reports, which by their very nature have to be unofficial, that in many places the officers running Thursday’s elections are taking a very tough line on postal votes which are currently being received and verified. In several local authority areas the number of reject ballots is running at more than one in four. A common reason is that voters have not filled in their date of birth correctly – a measure…
And it’s not much change from the online pollster With all the other big political news I missed a new YouGov poll in the Telegraph this morning. The headline Westminster figures were CON 39(nc): LAB 22(-1): LDEM 18(-1). Clearly these have been affected by Thursday’s Euro election and “others” are at a very high level. The Lib Dems will de disappointed that there’s no confirmation of the progress that the ICM poll found yesterday but the online pollster has in…
Is his position now more flaky than Brown’s? After yesterday’s splash in the Sunday Times suggesting that Brown is planning to install his long-time former close aide, Ed Balls, as Chancellor there’s more gloomy news for the current incumbent, Alistair Darling, today. He’s the big focus of today’s MP expenses disclosures. The paper’s account doesn’t look good for the man in charge of the nation’s money. “..In July 2007, Mr Darling submitted a £1,004 claim for a service charge on…
Would it be foolish to topple Brown now? I’ve had a number of conversations about the pending Fall of Brown with a wide variety of political types over the last week or two, and so from the outset I’d like to acknowledge that some of the genesis of this article belongs to them as much as to my own musing.* David Herdson’s excellent article last week asked whether the election ‘campaign’ for Speaker might be just enough to deter the…
What does my screen-shot say about Gord? What a day but I suppose it’s only to be expected given how close we are to Thursday’s elections. Everybody seems to have been on the telly this morning – the biggest of them all, I suppose, being Gordon Brown with Andrew Marr. So what do we make of it all? Has anybody helped their case – has anybody done the opposite. For what it’s worth I thought Marr did well against Brown…
Will Primaries be how the big parties strike back? In and amongst the big political stories of the week one potentially very significant event has received scant attention. This was the speech given by David Cameron at the Open University which set-out a series of ideas and policies that would bring about one of the biggest changes to political life this country has seen for decades. Â The scope of the proposed changes is vast: they run across the whole…