Is this bad news for the Tories?

Is this bad news for the Tories?


Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general

The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election.

The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop dramatically in the general election but just look where it goes. Just under two-fifths is going to the Tories, getting on for half is sticking with UKIP, while the rest is split amongst other parties.

There’s often an assumption that you can lump the UKIP vote in the the Tory one and assume that almost all of it will be back with the boys in blue at general election time. From this data, at least, that does not seem to be the case.

The poll cross-tabs also support the argument I was making last week about the age profile of UKIP voters for Thursday. Amongst the 55+ age group the split is CON 25: LAB 14%: LD 16%: UKIP 20%.

So Labour is in fourth place amongst those aged 55 and over – the segment which I would argue that will cover more than half those who’ll turnout on Thursday.

William Hill political markets have now got their Euro Election markets back up.

Mike Smithson

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