LAB edges up in the Mid Beds betting
The election date is October 19th so there’s some time for movement. Mike Smithson
Brand continues to dominate the front pages
Should the Liz Truss Honours list be blocked?
She was only PM for 45 days Clearly Labour is on to a winner with this one and the more Liz Truss is in the news the better it is for Starmer’s party. I am just amazed that Truss has pressed given the shambolic nature of her time at Number 10. Resignation honours are just about justifiable for PMs who have served a reasonable time at Number 10 but 45 days come off it. The danger for the Tories is…
Is Biden going to stand again?
Normally incumbent Presidents don’t face a serious challenge when they seek re-election but next year things could be very different because Biden is so old. So far all the messages from the Biden camp are that he does plan to stand again even though he could be in his late 80s when his second term of office finally came to an end. I just wonder whether he could be facing a contested primary with one or two young challengers seeking…
Fifty Shades of Grey Voters. Sunak’s punishing polling
If the Tories want to relive the Truss premiership and having polling showing them finishing fifth in a general election after the Labour party , the SNP, the Lib Dems, and the Natural Law party then ending the triple lock might be the best way to go about it. I am surprised to see younger voters to be pro triple lock given the way that generation has been treated recently but I suppose they will be pensioners one day. Based…
Why Labour’s chances of winning a majority are more than 50%
Will Labour win a majority at the next election? One potential barrier that has been much cited here is the party’s poor performance in 2019, which means that it faces a steep climb to win a majority. But others have argued that we should be thinking of its challenge not in terms of the additional seats it needs to gain, but the absolute number of seats it needs to win (326, although de facto fewer). To formalise the discussion, suppose…
Could LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections?
. First up is Rutherglen where punters have LAB as strong odds-on favourite to beat the SNP Then a fortnight later on October 19th we have Mid Beds and Tamworth – both seats held by the Tories at GE2019 with big majorities. Could it be that Labour is able to make two gains on the same day. to follow up its likely success in Scotland. Winning two on the same day us something that seemed highly likely in the Uxbridge…
Hard to see a LAB overall majority with this poll
With Labour looking to want maybe least 25 gains from the SNP in Scotland to help it towards an overall majority there’s a new poll from YouGov. This has the party’s deficit there up 7%. This is disappointing for Starmer and the question is whether other pollsters in their Scottish polls find similar trends. We don’t often dwell on it but the challenge facing LAB at the election is absolutely massive if it wants to achieve an overall majority. The…