Hard to see a LAB overall majority with this poll
With Labour looking to want maybe least 25 gains from the SNP in Scotland to help it towards an overall majority there’s a new poll from YouGov. This has the party’s deficit there up 7%.
This is disappointing for Starmer and the question is whether other pollsters in their Scottish polls find similar trends.
We don’t often dwell on it but the challenge facing LAB at the election is absolutely massive if it wants to achieve an overall majority. The party needs a total 122 gains which is not far off the 144 that Blair’s Labour got at GE1997.
Scotland could supply a significant number of gains.
My current general election guess is that Starmer’s party will come out on top but won’t have an overall majority.