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The successful CON defence of Uxbridge on June 23rd is being used by many to raise doubts about current polling and whether the very large LAB leads would actually be there at a general election. All sorts of different explanations have been put forward particularly on the political impact of ULEZ. It only struck me today whilst looking to the October 19th by-elections that there is another more obvious explanation. Like on June 23rd on October 19th LAB is looking…

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I cannot recall a Westminster by-election where the betting has been as tight as we’re seeing in Mid Bedfordshire which takes place in four weeks time. The campaign has been going on a long time. It was in early June that Nadine Dorries announced that she was quitting but only this month did make that official The chart shows what’s happened in the betting on the by-election with Smarkets and as can be seen LAB remains the favourite but only…

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This would carry bit more force if these moves had actually been proposed which they haven’t. The Tories have just made this up to make a point. To claim they are stopping something that was never on the table is dishonest. I suppose this is what happens when a PM finds himself 20% behind in the polls. Mike Smithson

The return of 20% deficits Over the past week also we have seen some fairly poor polls for the Conservatives. Quite why this is the case is hard to fathom but as each month goes by we are closer to the general election whenever Sunak decides to call it. The governing party increasingly looks very tired and there is a lack of confidence in its communications. If you ask most MPs of all the parties there’s a fairly clear view…

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Given how far behind the Tories are in the polls there is some sense in Sunak’s announcement that he intends to scrap many of the key environmental targets that have been settled policy for several years. Firstly he gets a lot of public attention as we see from today’s front pages. Secondly what he’s putting forward is quite novel and extremely controversial. There’s already been a fair amount of criticism from Boris Johnson and team who were responsible for the…

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My guess is that a similar question in a national poll would find clear support. It is striking that in this poll that Tory voters while backing the plan are not as supportive as the rest. If this does go through you can see it getting similar support outside Wales. There are of course many more road users than drivers. As a driver, a cyclist and a pedestrian I would be supportive because it could transform urban environments. In any…

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I like this chart because its starting date almost coincides with when PB was launched. Ipsos is just about the only pollster able to produce such an analysis because it has been operating in the UK since the 1970s. The most noticeable aspect in the last few years has been the decline and decline of the Tory polling figures. I think the public has decided that it is time for change and that Starmer is fairy reassuring to the centre…

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On Monday the government finally came up with a “take it or leave it” compensation offer to the subpostmasters. £600,000. It was described by Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs, as “providing a generous uplift” on compensation payments already made. Let’s see how generous it really is. Some subpostmasters were convicted as long as 23 years ago, between 2000 – 2015, the majority in the earlier years. That is compensation of between £26,000 and £75,000 pa. The sums on offer…

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