Yet again the Golden Polling Rule holds good

Yet again the Golden Polling Rule holds good

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UPDATED Why Labour should ALWAYS assume the worst Before we get into the days big story about whether Brown can hang on let’s have a quick look at the pollsters which, once again, have shown that the Golden Polling Rule still operates. This, as we’ve discussed here before, is that in CON-LAB contests the survey showing Labour in the least favourable position is the most accurate one – something that has happened on every occasion when polls have been tested…

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Is Wales the result that could end Brown’s career?

Is Wales the result that could end Brown’s career?

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How will a Tory Wales go down with Labour MPs? Of all the results so far tonight the one that stands out, surely, is from Wales. The massive collapse in Labour’s vote in what was a traditional stronghold and the emergence of the Tories as the top party in the principality seems to be totally astounding. This is one of those results that you simply could not have predicted and is so shocking that it could change the dynamics of…

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What’s the impact of the BNP break-through?

What’s the impact of the BNP break-through?

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Will this be the big story of the night? Although we are still waiting for an official announcement it’s starting to look as though one, and possibly two, BNP members will have won seats in Brussels in the Euro Elections. Although many had been predicting such a possibility the fact that this electoral success might have happened clearly has the potential to affect politics right across the board. Given Labour’s current travails is this going to help those who are…

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Getting the latest on the European Elections

Getting the latest on the European Elections

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Get the TweetElect09: Watch in real time what people say widget and many other great free widgets at Widgetbox! Who will be laughing and who will be crying? So tonight sees the release of the results of the European Parliamentary Elections – 736 MEPs (plus 18 ‘virtual MEPs’ who will be seated if the Lisbon Treaty is passed) will be elected by and electorate of 350 million potential voters from 27 countries containing 500 million citizens. The Dutch have already…

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Are 7 Cabinet Ministers for the Chop?

Are 7 Cabinet Ministers for the Chop?

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ICM / News of the World Poll Suggests Cabinet Clear-out An ICM poll reported in the News of the World and being prominently reported on Sky News suggests that seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats in a general election. The poll was carried out last Wednesday – before the local election results, reshuffle and ministerial resignations – in what the paper describes as “the 18 constituencies represented by main Cabinet Ministers”.  It’s not clear what this means: there are…

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Could Clarke be the Assassin?

Could Clarke be the Assassin?

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Might the ex-Home Secretary be Labour’s Stalking Elephant? Today’s big news really ought to be the European Parliament election results this evening, though given the way the last few days have gone, there’s no guarantee that something even more dramatic won’t scoop it. Still, as they won’t come out until this evening, let’s have another look at the Labour leadership situation. Once again, the Sunday newspapers are dreadful for Gordon Brown, with stories of (old) e-mails sent by Peter Mandelson…

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