Get your money on before they take it down William Hill have just emailed me – “William Hill expect the electorate of Norwich North to shun the By Election and offer 1/2 that turnout will be lower than at the last General Election and 6/4 that it will be higher” The 1/2 that it will be lower than the general election is by far the best political bet of the year. I cannot recall a by election where the turnout…
Where next in the phone-hacking saga? If you had believed one or two posters here on Monday then today was the day that David Cameron was going to sack his PR chief, Andy Coulson. This was going to follow his appearance yesterday before the Commons culture, media and sport select committee which had summoned him following the allegations in the Guardian two weeks ago. Well it didn’t quite work out like that. The committee didn’t really strike a blow and…
What general election pointers should we be looking for? We’ve had quite a few by elections in this parliament but most have been largely irrelevant in what they say about the Tory-Labour battle that will determine the general election. Tomorrow at Norwich North it’s different. This is a seat that the Tories should pick up relatively easily if they want to maintain their general election expectations – but what do we mean by “relatively easily“? Interestingly the Westminster voting intention…
Our resident cartoonist makes a welcome return Marf, great to have you back on PB – more of Marf’s work can be found at LondonSketchbook.com. The return of Our Genial Host from his Spanish break is now imminent – on behalf of the editorial team it’s great to have him back, and can I also say a very big thank you to Morus and David who have taken the lion’s share of covering PB while Mike has been away,…
CON 40 (+2) LAB 24 (+3) LD 18 (-1) “Others” fall as we move further from the Euros A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows the big two parties gaining most as the high support for Others around the time of the Euros continues to ebb away, with the Conservatives up two points to the key threshold of 40, and Labour climbing three up into the mid-20s. The decline for the share of “Others” (down 4 to 18 – Greens &…
Is there a mechanism for delaying by-elections? News from the BBC indicates that Chris Ostrowski, the Labour candidate in Thursday’s by-election in Norwich North, has collapsed at home and been taken to hospital with suspected Swine Flu. Firstly, I’m sure we all wish him a full and speedy recovery – hospitalisation denotes a degree of seriousness, and I have no doubt that partisan feeling can be put aside to wish him the very best. That said, this could be significant…
Can a new consensus be found? Last night, I attended the launch of the Open Left project – run by James Purnell MP on behalf of the think tank Demos. Purnell was joined by Jon Cruddas MP, Will Hutton, Jess Search of Channel 4, and Lewis Iwu (recently OUSU President and tipped as a future Labour leader if Shadsy is reading). The project has a simple aim – to redefine what it means to be Left wing in the face…
CON 38% (+2) LAB 26% (+2) LD 20% (+1) The Big Parties’ recovery continues The main impact of tonight’s Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times is on the minor parties, which are down 5%, with the gap between Tories and Labour steady at 12%, both up two points on the last Populus poll back on 10 June, shortly after the European elections and at the height of the expenses scandal. The 16% finding for Others is still high by historic standards. The…