The New Election Model – Part II

The New Election Model – Part II

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Two weeks ago, I introduced a new election forecasting model. This generated much heat, and a little light in the numerous comments. Many were scepticical, arguing that it used proportional swing, others asked how a model that produced such different results to Unified National Swing could be taken seriously. Many of the criticisms came from a lack of understanding of how the model – which we’ve nicknamed Voter Intention Prediction Analysis, or VIPA – works. This post explains why VIPA…

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Are these the headlines that Brown has been waiting for?

Are these the headlines that Brown has been waiting for?

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But what did a recovering economy do for Major in 1997? It has been one of the key hopes of Labour that the outcome of the general election will be determined by the economy and how well off voters feel by the time we get to polling day. So there should be delight in Downing Street with some of the new this morning. This is how the main front page story in today’s Guardian by Ashley Seager, economics correspondent, opens:-…

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Does 7/1 make Harriet an attractive bet?

Does 7/1 make Harriet an attractive bet?

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PB March 12 2009 Should we be looking at Labour’s deputy again? Back in March, when Harriet was the 100/30 favourite, I suggested that then might be the moment to cross of her off the least for the Labour leadership. One of my arguments was her poor showing in a YouGov poll of Labour members a week or so earlier in which she did not come out too well. Since then we’ve had the rise and and rise of Alan…

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Is this MORI polling bad news for UKIP?

Is this MORI polling bad news for UKIP?

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Ipsos-MORI Why do only 2 in 100 voters think that the EU is an issue? The chart above is from latest MORI Issues Index and shows how concern about the Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO continues to be at very low levels – something that now concerns only 2% of those polled. The index has been compiled in the same way for 30 years and involves asking, completely unprompted, what interviewees think are the “most important issues facing Britain today“. There is no…

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Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

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Did the shadow of Tony determine the historic decision? We are not far away from the second anniversary of what’s likely to go down as the defining decision of the Gordon Brown era – his cancelling in October 2007 of an early election. This is something that will be examined again and again in future years and still dominates our politics. For the polls during the Brown honeymoon had all been going Labour’s way and Brown apparently had a chance…

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What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

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PaddyPower Is their value on this new market? Overnight, while doing the piece on Irish referendum, I checked the political markets of PaddyPower which I must admit I tend to overlook. This is a pity because they are building a good range of UK general election bets including the above one which I have not seen elsewhere. With the big trend at the moment being the erosion of Labour votes a market on the percentage vote share that they’ll end…

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Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

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BBC online Is this a way of reconnecting with the voters? The result of the Conservative Totnes primary was announced this lunchtime and the big number that will be looked at is the 24.6% turnout. This puts it on par with what we saw last year in the US presidential primaries and gives the winner a very different mandate from those selected as parliamentary by standard selection procedures. Here it’s almost always in the hands of local parties with, in…

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Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

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Is tolerating Lisbon the price for power? On Friday October 2nd, just before the Conservatives gather for their last conference before the general election, the Irish vote in their second referendum on the Lisbon EU treaty having rejected it first time round. A NO vote would be brilliant for the Tories because Lisbon would then be rejected with the UK having “clean hands”. But if the betting markets have got this right then the outcome will be a YES and,…

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