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AntiFrank speculates on “the unknown unknowns”? Chess is a trivial game. I do not make this statement to annoy chess players: it is a mathematical statement. All information is available to both players throughout, the rules are predetermined and in theory at least all possible outcomes are known. Unlike chess, bridge is a non-trivial game. The different players have different information at different times. Each player must make his decisions not on the basis of perfect information but on the…

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Is this like Thatcher’s “.. no such thing as society” comment? There’s been a flurry of comment over David Cameron’s comment in his BBC “Westminster Hour” interview in which he suggested that the Tories would run the country like Tesco and Sainsbury’s if they get to power. The exact quote was according to the Sun: “In the situation we will face if we win the election, a budget deficit of maybe 14 per cent, we must find ways to cut…

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Is it going to be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories? Reading too much into by-election results is a very dangerous game. There aren’t very many of them and where and when they take place is close to a random process. However, having said all that, there’s one aspect of the recent Norwich North by-election result which could be an important pointer and which hasn’t had much coverage: the scale of the collapse of support for…

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CONHome But details are scarce and the pollster isn’t registered The first news of this poll of the 30 most marginal seats has come on ConservativeHome and details are very scarce. Firstly although the pollster has carried out at least one political poll in the UK before it is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council which makes me, for one, feel a touch uncomfortable. Secondly the report that we’ve got does not tell is when the…

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