What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?


Is their value on this new market?

Overnight, while doing the piece on Irish referendum, I checked the political markets of PaddyPower which I must admit I tend to overlook. This is a pity because they are building a good range of UK general election bets including the above one which I have not seen elsewhere.

With the big trend at the moment being the erosion of Labour votes a market on the percentage vote share that they’ll end up with seems very interesting.

I like percentage share betting because it’s less vulnerable to the vagaries of the seat total markets where the various calculators that translate vote percentages to seats won might out by quite a margin.

One thing to note is that the bet appears to be on the overall UK share – not the GB numbers, excluding Northern Ireland which is the basis for the opinion polls. At the 2005 election Labour UK share was about one percent smaller than its GB figure.

Bearing this in mind and taking current opinion polls the 26% – 27.9% option at 10/3 seems the best bet.

What do others think?

Mike Smithson

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