Did Balls think the election was still on? While we are going though a very quiet period with almost no political betting going on I thought it worth concentrating further on that first week of October 2007 which we might look back upon as the period that defined Labour’s third term. The clash in the clip was of a discussion before the non-election announcement. What I find striking is how pumped up Ed Balls was – even more so than…
Is anyone actually in charge? You know it’s silly season when, thanks to the Sky News website, you review the front pages of 10 national newspapers, and none of them have the same story. The Sun runs with an interview with Peter Andre, the Mail and the Express compete for outrage on different fronts, the Mirror and the Star both lead with celebrity drivel, and the Guardian has a potential health scare about anti-depressants against the Telegraph’s shocking news that…
The fireworks starts after about 1 minute 50 seconds.
Is it all doom and gloom? I’ve just accepted an invitation to give my thoughts on the general election outcome at a fringe event at the Labour conference in Brighton. This will be the first time I’ve been and I like the idea that it’s at somebody else’s expense. There’s a similar session at the Tory conference the following week. What I’ve been pondering is what on earth can I say in Brighton that is not going to go down…
Was this the secret of his popularity as chancellor? With a bit of luck there might be a weekend poll and if there is it could help us to answer one of the questions that is often posed – does seeing Gordon Brown or not seeing him on our screens everyday have an impact on Labour’s opinion poll ratings? For both he and David Cameron have been away for getting on for a fortnight so any new survey would have…
Sean Fear says don’t bet on a United Ireland any time soon Irish Nationalism has proved to be the most successful, patient, and subtle form of local nationalism within these Islands. Few people would have bet on an end to British rule in Ireland in 1800, yet by 1900, most tiers of government outside Ulster were de facto controlled by Irish Nationalists, and by 1921, most of the country was independent. The exception of course, was in the Six Counties…
Two weeks ago, I introduced a new election forecasting model. This generated much heat, and a little light in the numerous comments. Many were scepticical, arguing that it used proportional swing, others asked how a model that produced such different results to Unified National Swing could be taken seriously. Many of the criticisms came from a lack of understanding of how the model – which we’ve nicknamed Voter Intention Prediction Analysis, or VIPA – works. This post explains why VIPA…