politicalbetting.com

This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically. If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove…

Read More Read More

In a Monday interview, MAGA influencer Steve Bannon asked Greene what advice she would give to President Donald Trump as Congress tries to pass legislation based on his agenda. “Stick with the agenda and ignore the people here in Washington that are trying to get you to do something different,” Greene advised. “It’s the Republicans that are the problem, Steve.” TSE

A fun betting market for the next general election would be the lowest winning vote share at the next election would be. TSE

History, as we know, tends to pivot on the smallest of decisions. One such decision came in the autumn of 1978 when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan chose not to call a general election, leading to the “Winter of Discontent” and the downfall of his Labour government. But what if Callaghan had gone to the country in October 1978, as many of his advisers urged, and secured a narrow but workable majority? Britain’s political, economic, and geopolitical trajectory could have been…

Read More Read More

Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat. I wonder if we’ll see a similar impact at the next UK general election. Being a friend of Donald might be a problem. Until a couple of months ago the Coalition led under the two-party-preferred polling. One difference between Australia and UK is that Australia…

Read More Read More

After Mark Carney delivered the most consequential victory in Canada since the Battle of the Plains of Abraham attention now switches to Australia. I cannot see any value in the markets being offered by William Hill. It will be interesting to see how the republican Anthony Albanese uses his expected mandate to take back control from Australia’s unelected head of state. TSE

I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely. Exciting time for punters. TSE

We’re just under halfway through all the councils declaring and so far it is a stunning performance by Reform. Nigel Farage must feel like Napoleon after the Battle of Austerlitz. As a Tory I went in with very low expectations for the Tories but this is much lower than my worst expectations, yesterday feels like another staging post in the Tory eclipse by Reform. I suspect Badenoch will come under more pressure than Starmer after these results. I hope Reform’s…

Read More Read More