The “collective wisdom” view on key seat betting In table above we feature the first part of the predictions for key general election seats from a group of PB betting regulars who are modestly calling themselves “The PB Super Six”. Can I thank Peter the Punter and ScottP for pulling this together. The plan is to show all the seats where they have got bets on and the colour coding indicates where their money is going. This is part 1….
The Sun What does this say about Brown’s survival chances? The big overnight political betting story is the news that David Miliband won’t be going for the EU High Representative job – and all the speculation that this opens up not only about that appointment but the whole Labour leadership. Congratulations to Peter the Punter, Morus and others for picking up developments ahead of MSM and to Morus (Greg Callus), in particular, for his tip at 9.20pm on who might…
CON 39%(-1) LAB 29%(-1) LD 18%(nc) UKIP 4.3% (+2) BNP 2% (nc) GRN ???? SNP/PC ???? UKIP gets a two point boost Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll – the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up. The gap between the Tories and…
Should Mandy have avoided the attack on the Sun? Paul Waugh makes a valid point on his Evening Standard blog that the way Number 10 is dealing with the letter of condolence issue could be causing more damage. He writes: “We now have not just Peter Mandelson, but also housing minister Ian Austin claiming that this is all about The Sun’s decision to back the Tories.. First, the Prince of Darkness said that the tabloid’s story had to be seen…
..or is Labour using the threat to get its core vote out? Towards the end my conversation with Kevin Maguire on Radio 4’s “The Westminster Hour” the question arose of how the BNP would do in the Glasgow NE by election on Thursday. This followed reports that Labour officials have been telling the the media that the BNP might come third? But just how likely is this given that the BNP has never really got a foot-hold north of the…
“….Some Labour people may think I’m sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory…” Jackie Ashley’s Guardian column today – HatTip ConHome Mike Smithson
Wikimedia Commons Peter the Punter looks at the 2012 White House market If there is anybody out there who does not yet know about Mike Smithson’s prediction that Barack Obama, then a 50/1 outsider, would win the US Presidency three years later, they had better acknowledge it now. Trying to follow that astonishing piece of tipping is surely sticking one’s neck out but PB is not for the fainthearted: so when California Girl, the latest recruit to my long list…
This is the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, who has made this amazing prediction on the Julia Kirkbride and Elizabeth Truss re-selection issues. He wrote: “Both Truss and Kirkbride, in their respective constituencies, have slightly less promising prospects than Osama bin Laden in the Tel-Aviv mayoral race. So it seems almost too much to hope that they will succeed in being selected, thus reducing Dave’s putative majority by two seats.” Eh? You must be bonkers. Here’s a tip Mr Warner. Before…