What about betting 2,000 pounds Mr. Warner?

What about betting 2,000 pounds Mr. Warner?

This is the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, who has made this amazing prediction on the Julia Kirkbride and Elizabeth Truss re-selection issues.

He wrote:Both Truss and Kirkbride, in their respective constituencies, have slightly less promising prospects than Osama bin Laden in the Tel-Aviv mayoral race. So it seems almost too much to hope that they will succeed in being selected, thus reducing Dave’s putative majority by two seats.

Eh? You must be bonkers. Here’s a tip Mr Warner. Before making election predictions do a little bit of research because otherwise you will end up looking ridiculous.

This is the notional 2005 result from Bromsgrove:-

Conservative: 24387 (51%)
Labour: 14307 (29.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7197 (15.1%)
Other: 1919 (4%)
Majority: 10080 (21.1%)

This is the notional 2005 result from Norfolk SW

Conservative: 21942 (45.8%)
Labour: 15086 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8319 (17.4%)
Other: 2575 (5.4%)
Majority: 6856 (14.3%)

Tory victories in the two seats are almost foregone conclusions whoever is selected. There could be possible independent bids but come election day the issue will be whether voters want five more years of Mr. Brown or not.

So here’s a wager. I’ll bet you £1,000 in each seat that if Kirkbride and Truss are the official Conservative candidates then they will win. It’s OK writing high-blown stuff but your predictions are rubbish. Come on Mr. Warner – back up what you are saying with hard cash and let’s agree the two wagers.

Mike Smithson

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