Populus has the Tories below 40%

Populus has the Tories below 40%

CON 39%(-1)
LAB 29%(-1)
LD 18%(nc)
UKIP 4.3% (+2)
BNP 2% (nc)
GRN ????
SNP/PC ????

UKIP gets a two point boost

Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll – the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up.

The gap between the Tories and Labour remains the same at ten points making this the best poll for Labour since the last survey from Populus a month ago.

The Populus past vote weightings are a touch less favourable to the Tories than the other firms that use this mechanism for ensuring a politically balanced sample.

It should be noted that a reason why Populus, like ICM, can sometimes return a smaller share for “others” could be methodological. This is down, I believe, to their practice of allocating a proportion of those who say they will vote but won’t say who for in accordance with what respondents said they did last time. As the data shows, for the Populus October survey the “others” total was was two point bigger when unadjusted and the Labour total two points lower.

It will be interesting to see the full data from the latest November poll.

Mike Smithson

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