Can they relight the public’s fire?

Can they relight the public’s fire?

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Will the 1990s NuLab stars bring back the magic? The career path is well worn: a group has striking success but over the years, personality clashes emerge, they feel themselves getting stale and want a change or believe themselves constrained by the band and want to strike out on a solo career. The fans however aren’t so keen and the public’s initial interest fades. Before long, they’ve been eclipsed by newer and fresher faces. That might be the end of…

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Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

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The UKIP General-Secretary responds to Robert Smithson Occasionally the conventional laws of party politics must be put on hold – Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow and Wyre Forest being recent examples. Unusual scenarios lead to unpredictable outcomes; unique circumstances require mundane notions such as swing to be cast aside. Voters no longer make decisions based upon tribal party loyalty; they examine the candidates and decide who is best for the job. On Thursday evening Robert Smithson offered reasons for…

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Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

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YouGov Is this just a quirk or an election pointer? As PB regulars will know I keep a close eye each month on the forced choice question that is put in the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. It’s been done in the same format for years and the party split might be an indicator of potential tactical voting. For a long period, up to the past couple of years Lib Dem supporters were much more inclined to respond “Labour under Brown” rather…

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Who is winning the climate change argument?

Who is winning the climate change argument?

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Angus Reid Strategies Will the public support tough action? Last week in response to the thread asking for suggestions for possible polling questions several PBers put forward the idea of finding out what the public believed about what for many is the key issue of the age – the extent to which humanity is responsible for climate change. This is central to all policy development because if human behaviour is to blame then maybe something can be done about it….

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Buckingham: A Challenge to My Dad

Buckingham: A Challenge to My Dad

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Five Reasons Why UKIP Won’t Win In Buckingham (1) The Speaker’s Absolute Number of Votes Holds Up Very Well. Perhaps it’s because the speaker is a naturally prestigous role, but contested by the other parties or not, the speakers’ vote has tended to hold up very well. In fact if you look at the average votes the speaker has got, going back to 1974, and compares it to the average that parties polled in the surrounding elections then you see…

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Should you be putting more money on Farage?

Should you be putting more money on Farage?

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Evening Standard How’ll this go down with Buckingham Tories? Thanks to Ben Brogan in his Telegraph blog for spotting the remarkable interview that the wife of the speaker, Sally Bercow, has given to the Evening Standard. As regulars will know I’ve come in for a bit of stick over my betting on ex-UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, who is standing against Sally’s husband, John. My reasoning has been that Bercow was elected to this ultra-safe Tory seat as a Tory and…

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Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

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Why has there been so little movement on the spreads? It’s been an extraordinary couple of weeks with two polls suggesting that we are in hung parliament territory and, perhaps, a change in the media narrative. What seemed a certain Tory majority in mid-November is looking just a touch different. Above is the PB Index which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seats markets and then extrapolating that into a General Election outcome. The extraordinary…

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And now the Choccy Horror Show!

And now the Choccy Horror Show!

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Could the Mirror’s splash damage the Tories? Thanks to one or two contributors on the overnight thread for picking up this – the main story in the Mirror . For after a day which saw Gordon Brown at his most confident for months the paper’s exclusive, presumably from publicly available material, is that amongst the receipts in Cameron’s claims were those for four or five chocolate bars. These were under Cameron’s claims for his administrative and office allowance As the…

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