ICM data: Just 63pc of Blair voters sticking with Brown

ICM data: Just 63pc of Blair voters sticking with Brown

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..and Cameron has picked up 20% of them The detailed data from Sunday’s ICM poll is now out and provides another reminder of the massive task and possibly an opportunity for the Prime Minister – winning back those who voted for the party last time. One of the big issues that was always going to face Blair’s successor was to retain the extraordinary coalition that the former leader had created in 1997 when large swathes of middle England were persuaded…

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Populus Tory lead moves into single figures

Populus Tory lead moves into single figures

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CON 38%(39) LAB 30%(29) LD 20%(18) OTHERS % 11(14) This really is hung parliament territory As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin. There’s little…

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Will Gord get a Populus bonus after his PMQ success?

Will Gord get a Populus bonus after his PMQ success?

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Could another firm have the lead down to single figures? I’ve had it confirmed that the Populus December survey for the Times did take place over the weekend and if things are following their normal pattern we should find out about it tonight. This will be the first public poll to have been carried out wholly after Mr. Brown’s PMQ performance last Wednesday – an event that has reverberated throughout the Westminster village and is helping shape the media narrative….

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How are “others” likely to split as the race gets tighter?

How are “others” likely to split as the race gets tighter?

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YouGov for Channel 4 June 2009 Can Labour really expect to benefit most? The above is from the massive 32,268 sample YouGov poll taken just before the Euro Election last June and is just about the best resource we’ve got on the attitudes and backgrounds of those who, in that election at least, supported the “others” – the BNP, UKIP or the Greens. For given the continued very high shares that are being recorded for this segment this survey might…

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Just how much has the gap closed?

Just how much has the gap closed?

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UKPollingReport Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda? In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers. Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s. By contrast the Labour shares…

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Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

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Are SNP-Labour battles no more than a minor side-show? Anybody who reads the overnight PB threads might come to the conclusion that the only thing that matters in the coming general election is Scotland. For some reason there are periods in the twilight hours when the site becomes almost a Sassenach-free zone (see note below). Quite often I’m accused of not taking Scotland seriously enough or I’m taken to task for asserting (post Glenrothes and Glasgow North East) that Labour…

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Tory YouGov lead moves up 3 to 13 pc

Tory YouGov lead moves up 3 to 13 pc

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CON 40%(39) LAB 27%(29) LD 18%(19) OTHERS 15% (13) Will this ease the jitters in Camp Cameron? ConservativeHome is reporting the above shares for a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times. The changes shown are with the last survey from the pollster NOT the last one in the Sunday Times. The shares are a marked change on the 10 percent lead in the Telegraph last Saturday but the changes are all within the margin of error. Having said that there…

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Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

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Which 2005 “notional” result do we believe? A couple of weeks ago it was noted here that there was a big difference in the two most used projections for what the 2005 result in Ed Balls’s new seat at Morley and Outwood would have been on the new boundaries. This afternoon, while researching for piece on Ladbrokes new market on how many cabinet members could lose their seats I’ve found an even more glaring disparity between the UKPollingReport projection and…

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