CON 40%(40) LAB 31%(27) LD 16%(18) OTHERS 13% (15) So which pollsters do you believe? After the ComRes 17 point Tory lead reported in the previous thread there are two further surveys – a YouGov one featured above for the Sunday Times and a YouGov/BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday. The latter has C41-L30-LD17. It’s a while since we’ve had anything from YouGov/BPIX. The one consistent theme from the last four polls has been that the Tories are back…
CON 41% (37) LAB 24% (27) LD 21%(20) OTHERS 14% (16) Another poll has the Labour deficit at 17 points As the Tory press office has broken the embargo I feel able to reveal the ComRes details as well. The poll for the Indy on Sunday, shows a sharp change in the position from the pollster barely ten days ago. The shares, as can be seen, are almost the same as Friday’s PB/Angus Reid poll which has 40-23-19. There are…
Why’s the LDs biggest asset getting such an easy ride? There’ve not been many winners from the economic crisis, political or otherwise. Robert Peston is very probably one, Vince Cable another: he has become the TV and radio studios’ politician of choice for comment on the crisis and related matters. That’s a huge asset for the Lib Dems, as third parties can struggle to get their voice heard when there’s a serious debate between the big two or where the…
Guardian Can he get away with admitting that he lied? In what the Guardian is describing as a “big shift in his ground” Tony Blair is saying, in a BBC interview to be broadcast tomorrow, that he would have invaded Iraq in 2003 even without evidence of WMDs and would have found a way of explaining this. The papers reports : “.If you had known then that there were no WMDs, would you still have gone on?” Blair was asked….
Making more sense of the rise of the “others” We had an interesting additional voting intention question in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll which might help us further in trying to work out what will happen to the UKIP/BNP/GREEN vote as we get closer to the election. For a big issue, of course, is that there is not going to be a full slate of candidates in every seat and many of those electors currently telling pollsters that they’ll vote…
What should your choice be on the new Ladbrokes market? We’re getting closer to the day and the bookmakers are getting more ingenious in finding news ways for us to part with out money. That’s thow they make their living and we all love speculating. The new Ladbrokes market is on how many full members of the cabinet will lose their seats at the election? A problem is that it’s based on those who are full cabinet ministers at the…
Politicalbetting.com – Thursday evening after the 2008 budget Is instant polling reaction a guide to anything? Every Friday after budgets, and now the PBR, the Times publishes the findings of a quickie small sample non-voting intention Populus poll and invariably this is good for the government. But how seriously should we take it? Shouldn’t we look at the record. I raised this one last March and I raise it again. The above is from the post published here about a…
Angus Reid Strategies Should all pollsters get their data out on the same day? Here is the main set of cross-tabs with the regional and gender splits from this evening’s Politicalbetting/Angus Reid poll which is showing almost no change in the overall picture. Download the full set for yourself here. One of the things I was very keen on when we were setting up the arrangement with the pollster was that the full data-set should be made available as soon…