Making more sense of the rise of the “others”
We had an interesting additional voting intention question in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll which might help us further in trying to work out what will happen to the UKIP/BNP/GREEN vote as we get closer to the election.
For a big issue, of course, is that there is not going to be a full slate of candidates in every seat and many of those electors currently telling pollsters that they’ll vote UKIP/BNP/GREEN simply will not get the option.
So in the latest survey the 14% who said they were going for the three biggest minor parties were asked: “You mentioned that you would be most likely to support UKIP/BNP/GREEN. If that party was not standing in your constituency, which of the following parties would you be most likely to support?”
The response was – LAB 7%: CON 15%: LD 16%. The balance either said the didn’t know or simply chose the option of “another party”. So the idea that there is some secret store of votes for Labour is simply not there. The Tories will be disappointed, as well, by their small slice.
The main thrust of the PB Angus Reid surveys is going to be on voting and other ideas are being explored.