But the YouGov family reports a Labour recovery

But the YouGov family reports a Labour recovery

CON 40%(40)
LAB 31%(27)
LD 16%(18)
OTHERS 13% (15)

So which pollsters do you believe?

After the ComRes 17 point Tory lead reported in the previous thread there are two further surveys – a YouGov one featured above for the Sunday Times and a YouGov/BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday. The latter has C41-L30-LD17. It’s a while since we’ve had anything from YouGov/BPIX.

The one consistent theme from the last four polls has been that the Tories are back in the 40s – and that will calm the nerves at Cameron Towers. Where the views are very different is in the LAB/LD/Others split and it’s hard to work out why.

I think that we just have to accept that there are differences and focus on the similarities. If Labour can eat more into the LD/Others share then they might be in with a shout of preventing a Cameron majority government. But those Tory vote shares in the 40s are going to dampen the spirits at Brown Central.

Where YouGov and YouGov/BPIX are out of line is in their Lib Dems shares. Populus, ICM and Angus Reid have had this at 19 points while ComRes now puts it at 21 points. YouGov has this down to 16%.

Maybe it’s not the night to recap all the attack lines used by Labour against YouGov at the time of the 2008 London Mayoral election. Then, of course, the online pollster was on its own in projecting a Boris victory and some Labour backers didn’t like it.

The spread-betting markets have not moved. With Sporting Index it’s CON 352-357: LAB 208-213: LD 50-53 seats.

Mike Smithson

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