Should the Indy/Comres have heeded Sir Humphrey’s advice?

Should the Indy/Comres have heeded Sir Humphrey’s advice?

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Isn’t it all about how the questions are framed? The above clip always makes me chuckle and although it’s from a comedy show and is perhaps a bit over the top it’s a useful reminder about the hazards of non-standard polling questions. So what are we too make of the poll findings from the ComRes survey that the Indy is leading on this morning. The first non-voting related question asked whether respondees agreed that “A Conservative Government would mainly represent…

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The polling see-saw continues

The polling see-saw continues

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CON 38% (41) LAB 29% (24) LD 19% (21) OTHERS 14% (14) It’s now Labour up five from Comres in just nine days In keeping with the wise words on MORI founder, Sir Bob Worcester, I’m going to try not to report polls in terms of the lead – focussing on the party shares instead. As Bob says with the lead you have double the margin of error. So after the last ComRes poll which was published nine days ago…

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What’s this going to do to the campaign?

What’s this going to do to the campaign?

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SkyNews Why’s Cameron taking such a gamble? So now we have it. British election campaigns are never going to be the same again. For the long push by the broadcasters to get live TV debates between the three main leaders seems to have succeeded. ITV will host the first chaired by Alistair Stewart; Sky has the second with Adam Boulton while the final one will be a BBC affair with David Dimbleby in the che chair. Each programme will last…

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Would you sell Labour at 1,000 pounds a seat?

Would you sell Labour at 1,000 pounds a seat?

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Sporting Index Now the high rollers are entering the market After all the excitement on the commons seats spread markets last week there’s been a sharp reverse following the latest spate of opinion polls. A couple of days ago I was noting that there’s been a rush of big value bets on Labour. One at £1,000 a seat was a Labour buy and there’d been two £1,000 a seat Tory sells. Well it’s all gone the other way round. This…

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Could there be an urgent international role for Gordon?

Could there be an urgent international role for Gordon?

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What’s the world going to do post-Copenhagen? I was very struck by the Indy on Sunday’s, John Rentoul, in his blog on Gordon Brown’s performance in Copenhagen – for of all the left of centre commentators he is one of the biggest and most consistent critics of the PM. He wrote: “The relative failure of the Copenhagen summit has a more parochial implication: Gordon Brown won’t get the credit he so richly deserves for a feat of negotiating energy and…

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The PB 2009 Prediction reviewed – Part 2

The PB 2009 Prediction reviewed – Part 2

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UKPollingReport Who is going to be “The Political Forecaster of the Year”? At the turn of the year we ran our usual 2009 prediction competition when posters were asked to submit their projections for a wide range of political areas during the year. We’ve already looked at the first batch and now its time for the polls Entrants were asked to estimate the high and low shares for each of the three main parties in ICM surveys during 2009 as…

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Do Kings still Count?

Do Kings still Count?

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  To what extent is HMG still HM’s Government? Two stories in the media during the week involved Prince Charles and politics. In one, he was criticised for lobbying ministers on policy matters; in the other, he addressed the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, giving his now-familiar appeal for greater sustainability in the use of the planet’s natural resources. The contrast with his mother, who through a reign of over fifty years has barely given an opinion on anything vaguely controversial,…

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Was it the the PBR that changed the climate?

Was it the the PBR that changed the climate?

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Newspaper front pages December 10 Is the Bob Worcester analysis on the nail? Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, posted this on the overnight thread. “What’s going on, the polls seem all over the place? One says a lead of 6 and another a lead of 17. ” I’ve been hearing that for many a year. So what is going on? Part of the answer is ‘events, dear boy, events” And the Pre-Budget Review (PRB) was not just an event…

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