The PB 2009 Prediction reviewed – Part 2

The PB 2009 Prediction reviewed – Part 2


Who is going to be “The Political Forecaster of the Year”?

At the turn of the year we ran our usual 2009 prediction competition when posters were asked to submit their projections for a wide range of political areas during the year. We’ve already looked at the first batch and now its time for the polls

Entrants were asked to estimate the high and low shares for each of the three main parties in ICM surveys during 2009 as well as the smallest and biggest Tory lead.

The predicted ICM average highs and lows were with the actuals in brackets:

Tory share 45 – 37 (45 – 39)
Lab share 36 – 27 (32 – 22)
Lib Dem share 21 – 14 (25 – 16)
Con lead 16 – 3 (19 11)

These predictions were made at the turn of the year after a month when Labour’s ICM deficit had got down to just five points – so it was hardly surprising that entrants under-shot. The big events that moved the polls were the smeargate email affair and, of course, MPs expenses which all blew up in April.

More predictions to be reviewed in part three.

Mike Smithson

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