The polling see-saw continues

The polling see-saw continues

CON 38% (41)
LAB 29% (24)
LD 19% (21)
OTHERS 14% (14)

It’s now Labour up five from Comres in just nine days

In keeping with the wise words on MORI founder, Sir Bob Worcester, I’m going to try not to report polls in terms of the lead – focussing on the party shares instead. As Bob says with the lead you have double the margin of error.

So after the last ComRes poll which was published nine days ago we have a sharp turnaround in Labour’s position – up by a walloping five points to their highest share from the pollster since March. This is at the expense of the Tories – down three and into the 30s again, and the Lib Dems who see a two point cut.

The Labour movement is way above the margin of error. A factor that might have driven it is the high profile for ministers at the Copenhagen conference – or an element could be sample variation between the firm’s two polls this month.

I am assuming that the ComRes past vote weightings are roughly in line with their last poll. They have been much more stable of late though they do move more than ICM and Populus. The reason these can vary is that all three have complex formulas to take into account false recall.

This is unlike PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, which uses precisely the same past vote weightings with every poll linked directly to what happened at the last election taking no account of false recall – an element that might be contributing to its lack of turbulence.

So ComRes will give some heart to Brown Central though the dramatic nature of the swing in such a short period might just take the gloss off it.

  • Betting on which pollster which will get it most right: The latest PaddyPower prices are: 5/2 YouGov; 3/1 ICM; 3/1 Angus Reid; 9/2 Populus; 9/2 MORI; 5/1 Comres.
  • UPDATE: The detailed ComRes figures are now out – here.
  • Mike Smithson

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