CON 38% (40) LAB 31% (31) LD 19%(18) What do we think of the gap going down to just 7% The third of today’s polls, from YouGov for the Daily Telegraph, has the Tories down below the 40 mark at just 38 points – only seven above Labour. If that was the margin on the day then we would certainly expect a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Of all the polls that we’ve seen in recent…
We’re now back in hung parliament territory There’s another huge swing in the MORI poll for January that has just been published. This was carried out last weekend but is only being published tonight for tomorrow’s Daily Mirror. These are are figures for the last four MORI polls C43-L26-LD19 – October 18 2009 CON LEAD 17% C37-L31-LD17 – November 15 2009 CON LEAD 6% C43-L26-LD20 – December 13 2009 CON LEAD 17% C40-L32-LD16 – January 28 2010 CON LEAD 8%…
Shall we now stick with Press Association’s “official list”? As I’m sure most PBers will know the next election will be fought in England and Wales on new boundaries. That’s fine except when we try to predict seats for betting an other purposes we need to know what happened last time. And here we can run into some massive confusion because there are at least three sets of 2005 notionals available online and they can all be showing very different…
CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 19% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new Angus Reid poll exclusively for Politicalbetting this afternoon and once again it shows almost no change on the previous poll taken at the start of January. Fieldwork took place from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and we’ll have links to the full data later on in the day. This is the third successive poll in the Angus Reid/PB series where the CON-LAB…
How did the “Lie Detector” become a “Credibility Meter”? The first screen grab from Daily Telegraph’s video coverage was taken at about 10.30am. Notice how the meter on the left hand side was described as a “Lie Detector”. The one below was done at 11.45am – and notice how this has now been renamed “Credibility Meter”. Has someone been batting very hard for Tony during the morning and if so who? There lies a story. Mike Smithson
SkyNews Could this be a dangerous day for Mr. Brown? Getting on for seven years after he took that momentous decision Tony Blair will be quizzed in public for six hours today about what has become the defining policy of his administration – the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. We’ve had a taster already, from Alastair Campbell earlier in the month, of the approach the ex-PM is likely to take and we’ll be exposed again to that hugely capable…
How gamblers are seeing the election There’s hardly been any movement for months on the PB Index – the site’s attempt to extrapolate a general election result from how political gamblers are risking their cash on the party seat markets. Here it’s all about the balance of money with some punters wanting to sell and others wanting to buy. The PB Index is worked out by taking the mid-point spreads on the Betfair party line market and the spread betting…
What’ll the daily tracker do to the election frenzy? There has been nothing official from the firm but I’m hearing a lot of murmurings to the effect that the online pollster will be starting an election daily tracker – possibly next month. Apparently this will operate on weekdays only at first stepping up to seven polls a week as we get closer to the big day. The firm experimented with a tracker during the conference season in late September and…