politicalbetting.com

Is 30% (+MoE) the limit in the current climate? Two events in Spring 2009 gave minor parties a massive boost in the polls. One was the coverage and electoral opportunities afforded by the European elections, the other was the disillusionment with the Conservatives and Labour that resulted from the expenses scandal (the Lib Dems’ poll rating was largely unaffected). After polling around 10% throughout winter 2008-9 with all firms except Comres, who put them a couple of points higher, Others shot up…

Read More Read More

CON 38% (40) LAB 31% (31) LD 19%(18) What do we think of the gap going down to just 7% The third of today’s polls, from YouGov for the Daily Telegraph, has the Tories down below the 40 mark at just 38 points – only seven above Labour. If that was the margin on the day then we would certainly expect a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Of all the polls that we’ve seen in recent…

Read More Read More

We’re now back in hung parliament territory There’s another huge swing in the MORI poll for January that has just been published. This was carried out last weekend but is only being published tonight for tomorrow’s Daily Mirror. These are are figures for the last four MORI polls C43-L26-LD19 – October 18 2009 CON LEAD 17% C37-L31-LD17 – November 15 2009 CON LEAD 6% C43-L26-LD20 – December 13 2009 CON LEAD 17% C40-L32-LD16 – January 28 2010 CON LEAD 8%…

Read More Read More

CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 19% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new Angus Reid poll exclusively for Politicalbetting this afternoon and once again it shows almost no change on the previous poll taken at the start of January. Fieldwork took place from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and we’ll have links to the full data later on in the day. This is the third successive poll in the Angus Reid/PB series where the CON-LAB…

Read More Read More

How did the “Lie Detector” become a “Credibility Meter”? The first screen grab from Daily Telegraph’s video coverage was taken at about 10.30am. Notice how the meter on the left hand side was described as a “Lie Detector”. The one below was done at 11.45am – and notice how this has now been renamed “Credibility Meter”. Has someone been batting very hard for Tony during the morning and if so who? There lies a story. Mike Smithson