Who’s got this right? Herdson or Peter the Punter Earlier this week, I had an e-mail exchange with Peter the Punter following a bet we made a week last Monday as to whether Gordon Brown would go within the week, where we both set out our thoughts on Brown’s chances of survival through to next May. The first e-mail is from me in response to a question that Peter asked – whether Labour would sleepwalk to a sub-200 seat total,…
CON 40%(-1) LAB 27%(-3) LD 19%(+2) Will this add to Labour disappointments? What a difference a week makes? Just six days ago Labour might have just felt that things were turning for them. They’d been down only ten points in the October Populus poll and then there was further goodish news in the two surveys that came out on Saturday evening. YouGov had them on the psychological 30% mark while ComRes had them only 12 behind with the Tories on…
Norwich north by election poster Is this what all the publicity has produced? According to a twitter from the Standard’s Paul Waugh a new YouGov poll for the Telegraph tonight will show a boost for the BNP. The last survey from the firm put the party’s share at just two points. Tonight’s poll is due out at 10pm. I’m off out and won’t be back until late. Mike Smithson
Will officially moving out of recession be the trigger? There had been a lot of expectation that today would have seen growth in Q3 (July – September) – a point at which ministers could have declared that the country was “officially” out of recession. That didn’t happen and now Ladbrokes are offering 4/6 that this milestone will be achieved in the final quarter (October to December). Whatever the latest MORI Economic Optimism Index – out this week – has what…
South Shields Sanddancers Is there really plotting going on? On Wednesday we ran a thread based on a comment from our reliable north eastern Labour contributor, HenryG, suggesting possible moves over the leadership involving Peter Mandelson and South Shields MP and foreign secretary, David Miliband. Last night while all the focus was on Mr. Griffin the “Mole” in the online newspaper, The First Post, carried more speculation noting that this weekend Peter Mandelson is travelling to South Shields to give…
Is it simply that he doesn’t have the communication skills? From the extracts that the BBC news channel has been running over the past hour we are getting a sense of what tonight’s Question Time recording was like. A hostile highly articulate audience facing a man who, being blunt about it, didn’t get over any message very well and seemed, at times, to be inarticulate. I was expecting well thought-out sound-bites on how his party was fighting for sections of…
Should the BBC have invited Nick Griffin to appear on the panel of tonight’s Question Time? The BBC was wrong The BBC was right
YouGov They feel poorer, less safe and believe politicians are corrupt One of most useful surveys this year was the YouGov mega-poll before the June Euro elections for Channel 4. This had a sample of 32,268 and is presented in a form where we can see the responses of party supporters to a range of attitudinal and personal background questions. The table featured above looks at party allegiance and the views of their parents and suggests that BNP supporters are…