YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% Within the MOE – but will it affect the narrative ? So here it is – tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties will want to see this sort of move supported…
Yet more polls on the way! Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB. The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought I’d give it a show now. Marf’s work can be found here. Don’t forget to take part in the PB survey. All views…
Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. The current decline against Labour is precipitous. Green and Jennings argue that it is important to study the public mood across a…
All views are welcome especially from lurkers In conjunction with Woodnewton Associates we are carrying out a survey of PB users to find out more about ourselves, how we might improve the site and also to get a feel for the political make-up of the PB community. This is the first time we’ve ever attempted anything like this and the more people that take part the better it will be. If you’ve got five minutes then please fill in the…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 10 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 3.5% And the Lib Dems slump after last night’s boost So the Labour share remains stable tonight with the Tories edging up and the Lib Dems taking quite a hit. This will bring some relief to the blue team which yesterday touched a two and half year low with its 36% share. Meanwhile the…
UNS – Exploring the Distortions I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three. It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly a UNS calculation from the position as of the 2005 General Election is very harsh on the prospects of the Tories. But is this built…
Look at how out of line it was in March 1997 One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM’s polling is that it is “The Gold Standard”. This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ended up being proved right. Just look at the panel for almost exactly thirteen years ago ahead of the election that brought Tony Blair to power. Those were,…
Come on you guys – follow the media narrative? After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I’d try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the “no overall majority” option in the Betfair overall majority market. The price I got, was 1.9/1 and my reading was that this would tighten and then I’d be able to get out at a profit. With so many polls all pointing in one direction and the…