A new poll tonight of London seats reports a big move back to the Tories compared with the last such poll just three weeks ago. The shares are: CON 40 (+1): LAB 31 (-4): LD 18 (+1). Compared with the 2005 general election in the capital this represents an 8% swing which puts it at Angus Reid levels. Mike Smithson
Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…
SkyNews
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 22 Mar 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 5% More jitters for the blue team Tonight’s daily poll for the Sun, where the fieldwork finished at 5pm, reports a narrowing of the lead from 7% on Sunday to just 4% this evening. This is all getting very tight as we move into the final pre-campaign stage. For YouGov follows ICM and Optimum…
Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 22 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 15% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5% “Others” jump to a massive 18 points Only the third national opinion poll to be published from new kid on the block, Opinium for the Daily Express, is out tonight and has the Tory lead narrowing to seven points while others move up to 18%. This is the biggest share to be published by the…
The Sun Could this put the Tories back above 40? On the face of it this afternoon’s news about Samantha Cameron should be good news for the Tories. It’s the sort of thing that people like to know about and seems to give pleasure. This, of course, has the added dimension of the personal tragedy that the couple have undergone in the past thirteen months. So maybe we can expect a baby boost in polling that takes place in the…
Populus (Resolution Foundation) Mar 11 Feb 7 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 21% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5% Is the swing 1.7% bigger in the key seats? Thanks to Tabman on the previous thread for spotting this one. A standard national voting intention poll that was carried out by Populus the week before last for the Resolution Foundation. The figures above show changes on the most recently published standard national poll from the…
SkyNews What does it do to his 2012 chances? The big overnight news is Obama’s victory by 219 votes to 212 in the House of Representatives for his controversial healthcare reforms after a prolonged and massive battle. There’s little doubt that if this had failed then his chances winning of a second term in 2012 would have suffered a major blow. In the past months his approval ratings have taken a sharp knock and getting this through had become a…