UPDATE: The new Populus poll that wasn’t

UPDATE: The new Populus poll that wasn’t

Populus (Resolution Foundation) Mar 11 Feb 7
LABOUR 31% 30%
LIB DEMS 21% 20%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5%

Is the swing 1.7% bigger in the key seats?

Thanks to Tabman on the previous thread for spotting this one. A standard national voting intention poll that was carried out by Populus the week before last for the Resolution Foundation.

The figures above show changes on the most recently published standard national poll from the firm – which was in the Times at the start of February.

What makes this “new” poll interesting is that the fieldwork took place almost immediately after the firm’s poll of Labour most vulnerable seats numbers 51 – 150. That recorded a swing from the last election of 6.7%

This national poll has it at 5% – so it broadly supports the notion that the Tories are doing better in the marginals.

At the time of the Populus marginals poll many observed that it was a pity that we did not have a standard poll to compare it. Well this one was not quite concurrent but gives us a broad indication.

UPDATE: It turns out that this wasn’t a new poll at all. The Resolution Centre had asked some question for its own purposes but the voting intention numbers were from the ICM poll that was published a couple of days later.

Mike Smithson

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