The Tory Opinium lead drops to just seven points

The Tory Opinium lead drops to just seven points

Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 22 Mar 15
LABOUR 30% 28%
LIB DEMS 15% 16%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5%

“Others” jump to a massive 18 points

Only the third national opinion poll to be published from new kid on the block, Opinium for the Daily Express, is out tonight and has the Tory lead narrowing to seven points while others move up to 18%.

This is the biggest share to be published by the firm and makes it out of line with even the PB/Angus Reid poll where the last survey had this down to 14 points.

What I think this suggests is that there is a lot of uncertainty out there. My understanding is that the firm does not use any special weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample and this, surely, is the reason for the very low Lib Dem numbers.

So another poll that will add to the hung parliament narrative though the lack of political weighting puts it at odds with all other pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI – and that firm only reports those that are 100% certain to vote.

Mike Smithson

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