YG daily poll – Sun Mar 30 Mar 29 CONSERVATIVES 38% 39% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% And the LDs gain just one So a bit of a disappointment for the Lib Dems after last night’s performance by Vincle Cable in the debates but at least they are moving up a notch. The Tory=Labour splt just the same so no notoiceable change following the big NIC announcement. There is a…
Can his intervention help Labour turn the tide? So he’s back nearly three years after he stepped aside to let Mr. Brown become leader and PM. What’s going to be the impact? Can Tony turn some of those Tory voters who went Labour in 1997 and have now moved away? Or has his influence on the UK scene declined the longer he has been away. There are also the controversial reports of his earning as an ex-PM. But Blair, whatever…
FLASHBACK to October 2006 John Rentoul writes a post on his blog about the recent Manchester academic conference when all those making predictions said it was going to be a hung parliament. This has prompted me to dig out this MORI poll of nearly 300 politics dons taken in October 2006 only nine months before Mr. Brown became prime minister. Remembering that this was October 2006, they were asked to give their forecast for the general election. Notice in particular…
And what are we to make of voodoo polls? Thanks to PB’s cartoonist Marf for her take on last night’s debate and her gentle reminder that the group that really matters are swing voters. So who won and what impact will it have? Beware of the voodoo polls – not only are the samples self-selecting but it’s very easy to multi-vote as I discovered last night after recording my preference in Channel 4’s quickie poll. A message then appeared that…
ComRes Independent Mar 28 Feb 28 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 30% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 4% YG daily poll – Sun Mar 29 Mar 26 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 4% Two more polls with the same broad trend The second of tonight’s polls is just out – by ComRes for the Independent – and follows the pattern of other…
Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 29 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 15% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5% Another poll has Brown’s party falling further behind The first of what I expect to be three polls tonight, new pollster Opinium for the Daily Express, conitnues the trend of all the weekend surveys and has Labour’s deficit getting bigger. The gap is now ten points and the shares on the simplified UNS rule of…
Ipsos-MORI In how many seats could tactical voting be decisive? The above data from last week’s marginals poll from the MORI poll of the marginals shows that an incredible 77% of LD supporters might switch by polling day in seats where Labour and the Tories are battling it out. Clearly the more this is framed as a battle between Brown and Cameron the more that this segment will become important. The critical questions are how many will switch and which…
Did Darling’s budget provide him with the peg? Making tax announcements so close to the date is a big risk and no doubt Labour will be working hard at finding the holes so they they can start to undermine it straight away. But the line that Labour has identified billions of efficiency saving as revealed in Darling’s budget gives the Tories some cover – at least for the next few hours. The addition of Ken Clarke alongside Osborne and Hammond…