Should you bet on him becoming Sir Anthony? In something of a novelty market from William Hill, they’re asking whether Blair will get a knighthood during 2010. As they put it, Former Prime Minister Tony Blair is campaigning for Labour again and as a result William Hill are offering 10/1 that he will be knighted this year. Is that worth taking? I don’t accept Hill’s thinking – I don’t believe for a moment Blair is campaigning because he thinks there…
..or is featuring Cameron an own goal? This is Labour’s latest ad – the much-hyped one that was designed by a 24 year old supporter from St. Albans. I don’t think that people will immediately get it. Those who were adults at the start of the 80s are now in their fifties and is there a widespread sense that the decade was an awful one for the country in the way that poster tries to suggest? But the mega-mistake is…
Could it all be over by the Summer? The problem with party leadership markets is that the timescales are so uncertain. If Gordon Brown serves as long as Tony Blair did as Labour leader, he’ll be there for another ten years. Alternatively, Brown’s successor could be in place by the Summer holidays. With all the attention on the General Election, perhaps now might be a good time to look to a relatively forgotten market that could soon become very live….
Who, for instance, does it want you to vote for? This is the latest “squeeze” post-card that’s gone out by mail to potential LD voters in key marginals, apparently from Labour. The interesting thing is that it does not mention the name of the party anywhere. All we have is information about the alleged consequences of voting Lib Dem. It’s also based on the false assumption that all Lib Dem supporters will naturally fall in line behind Labour when the…
It was great to welcome Marf to the London gathering of PBers on Wednesday and I know that one or two of those there took the opportunity to acquire originals or prints of some of the work she has done for the site. They make very timely gifts. She can be contacted via LondonSketchBook.com Mike Smithson
Telegraph Is all it down to new invitation methodology? There’s a big piece in the Telegraph this morning raising issues that have been discussed at length on PB in the past few weeks – whether Britain’s biggest political pollster, YouGov, is over-stating Labour. The Telegraph, it should be noted, was the online firm’s first major media client – an arrangement that came after the paper switched from Gallup following the 2001 general election. That continued until two months ago when,…
YG daily poll – Sun Apr 1 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 4.5% So all but TNS are in the same ball-park Here’s the latest daily poll by YouGov for the Sun with the Tory lead getting wider – beyond Labour’s safety zone of a hung parliament. Although the theoretical UNS swing says a bigger gap is required both Tory and Labour HQs are operating on…
ICM – Guardian Mar 31 Mar 26 CONSERVATIVES 38% 39% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 23% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5.5% How does this bode for the campaign? Although less than 2 million viewers tuned in to the Channel 4 chancellors’ debate on Monday it generated a lot of associated publicity and tonight we see the benefit. A big boost for Vince’s party and Labour moving back into the 20s. The changes above are with the…