General Election projection: Tories 48 seats short

General Election projection: Tories 48 seats short

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For interactive map go to PoliticsHome Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) explain their vote projection method now published and updated regularly at Politics Home. As PB readers and regulars know, interpreting the torrent of polling during an election campaign is a difficult task. The ‘horse race’ attracts widespread interest and can shape the tone of the campaign. Yet, true patterns of…

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Is it all pointing to a big turnout?

Is it all pointing to a big turnout?

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Wikimedia What’s the best betting option? For my Guardian election betting tip today I highlight a finding from this week’s MORI poll in which 78% of voters say the outcome of the election is important to them personally. The response level at this stage of a campaign to the same question was only exceeded in 1992. Then, it will be recalled, turnout was just under 78%. Clearly a combination of the TV debates and the hard-to-predict outcome is adding to…

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So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

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Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown…

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The debate thread – continued

The debate thread – continued

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Angus Reid are running their usual polling operation where you will be able to watch the numbers live as they come in. This should start after the debate. See here. Election betting from the new political betting exchange Smarkets or from Ladbrokes. Mike Smithson

Lib Dems down to third in the daily poll

Lib Dems down to third in the daily poll

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YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 22 Apr 21 CONSERVATIVES 34% 33% LIB DEMS 28% 31% LABOUR 29% 27% The media onslaught takes a bit of a toll What’s probably the only pre-debate poll tonight is out and the numbers are above. For the first time since the first debate a week ago the Lib Dems are back in third place. Clearly all eyes will be looking to Bristol this evening for the second leaders’ debate. Things might look very…

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Did Cameron peak too early?

Did Cameron peak too early?

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Ipsos-MORI Is 4.5 years as opposition leader just too long? One of the key sets of figures that overseas pundits always look for are the approval ratings and, indeed, the most linked to PB post from the US this week has been that on the huge rise in Clegg’s rating. Clearly there’s a stark contrast between the Clegg and Cameron position and doubt the Tory leader will have learned lessons from the first debate and step up his game tonight…

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What does Dave do about Nick’s referendum move?

What does Dave do about Nick’s referendum move?

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Could this be a trap for the Tory leader? As we get closer to each of the debates all three participants have been positioning themselves on issues that might come up. Thanks to David Blackburn on the Speccie CoffeeHouse blog for highlighting this one – Nick Clegg’s offer yesterday to hold a full “in or out” referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. This, of course, has been one of the key demands of UKIP – and could supporters of…

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Tabloids cover Lib Dems sensation

Tabloids cover Lib Dems sensation

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Will this reverse the polling surge? One of the ongoing moans of the Liberal Democrats was the challenge they face in getting the attention of the media. Well they can’t complain this morning. For now the attention is moving off the volcanic dust story Nick Clegg faces the full force of the tabloids with one paper after another firing salvo after salvo at him and his party. The question is whether it’s going to have an impact? Are the papers…

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