Click to play This is Brown being interviewed down the line for Radio 2 shortly after the incident. What’s striking here is the manner of his response – his apology was not really an apology at all. I just wonder whether this is making matters worse. The problem, of course, is that this just reinforces the perceptions people have about him – from the way he spoke to his aide in the car to his comments about the broadcasters. Meanwhile,…
Originals and prints of Marf’s PB cartoons are available here. The big story of the day, of course, has been Mr. Brown’s unguarded comments that were recorded about a woman he had been speaking to.
Is this going to be Clegg’s final week pitch? I’ve long taken the view that the most critical four and a half minutes in this election campaign will be the three 90 second wind-up statements by Brown, Cameron and Clegg at the end of tomorrow night’s debate. Each one will use it as a straight appeal setting out the core reasons why voters should support them and their parties. What they say will frame the final days of campaigning. So…
Conservatives lead by 4, Labour & Lib Dems tied ComRes/ITV-The Independent Apr 26 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 29% 31% LABOUR 29% 28% Can we be careful not to discuss postal voting poll subsets as this may be illegal – thanks. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
Conservative lead 8 with Populus, 4 with YouGov Labour up to second place with YouGov Populus/The Times Apr 27 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LIB DEMS 28% 31% LABOUR 27% 28% YouGov/The Sun Apr 27 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 29% 28% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
Would this be the key question as to What Happens Next? Let’s suppose that the General Election produces the hung parliament the polls and betting markets are currently indicating is the likeliest outcome. What happens next is partly the consequence of the numbers game – how many MP’s and votes each party won – but also how the various players react to events and to each other. In politics, as allegedly elsewhere, possession is nine-tenths of the law and Gordon…
538.com Nate Silver’s view of the Uniform National Swing Nate Silver, the elections expert behind the renowned US polling site, Fivethreeeight.com, has been taking a close interest in the mathematics of the UK’s uniform nation swing mechanism for converting poll shares into seats won. He argues: “…. these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based…
Populus May 2005 Can we expect shockers like this from 2005? At the big pre-election polling conference at the Royal Academy in January 2010 the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, touched on the challenges for phone pollsters of carrying out surveys over bank holiday weekends and referred to what had happened before the last election. For fieldwork for the most infamous bank holiday poll, the one reproduced above from Populus, took place over the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before the…