… and tonight’s ComRes

… and tonight’s ComRes

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No change from ComRes, but 38% may change mind before voting ComRes: ITV News/Independent May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 29% 29% LIB DEMS 26% 26%   The press release from ITV News/The Independent says: “This poll gives the Conservatives 294 seats – 32 short of an overall majority – Labour 251 seats and Liberal Democrats 74. These voting intention figures are identical to figures from ComRes yesterday – the first time during the election campaign that figures…

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Tonight’s YouGov numbers

Tonight’s YouGov numbers

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YouGov – the Sun May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 24% 28% Anthony Wells says: “Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the “Cleggmania” bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour…. or, it could…

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Who’ll soon be on the Westminster train?

Who’ll soon be on the Westminster train?

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Tonight’s polling thread.. I’m in London for my regular slot on the ITV campaign show with Jonathan Dimbleby. Tonight I’m expecting the ComRes roly-poly and YouGov. The big deluge of polls will come tomorrow. I’m won’t be back looking at the site until about 11.30pm. Mike Smithson

Can Dave emulate Edward Heath?

Can Dave emulate Edward Heath?

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Year Post-war elections with a change of government 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had lost…

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The money goes on NOM

The money goes on NOM

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Bestbetting Does it all depend on the Yellow-Blue battles? If this was a straight fight between the Tories and Labour then there would be a strong case for saying back a Tory majority. The polls seem to be suggesting that the blues are doing well enough in these encounters to win. But in three other groups of seats it’s hard to come to that conclusion. CON efforts to take LD seats: The latest polling, by Crosby-Textor, for the Telegraph suggests…

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Meanwhile punters are confused…

Meanwhile punters are confused…

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Bestbetting And tonight’s YouGov poll YouGov – the Sun May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% The chart shows the changes over the past 24 hours on the overall majority markets at the betting exchanges. Just look at how it has chopped and changed as gamblers have reacted to different bits of polling news – some pointing in one direction and some in another. No doubt it will get worse tonight with ComRes…

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