Rank Pollster CON LAB LD Error 1 RNB India: Phone 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 4.2 2= ICM phone/past vote weighted 36 (-0.9) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 5 2= Ipsos-MORI: phone 36 (-0.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 5 4 Populus: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 27 (+3.4) 5.2 5 Harris: Online 35 (-1.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 6 6 ComRes: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 28 (+4.4) 6.2 7 Opinium: online 35 (-1.9) 27 (-2.7)…
SportingIndex Is this a case of sell the Tories: buy the LDs & LAB? SportingIndex has put up an intriguing handicap market on the final seat to be resolved in the 2010 general election – Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire where the election had to be put back until this coming Thursday because of the death of one of the candidates. With a notional 2005 outcome of CON 25,702 (51.88%): LAB 11,585 (23.39%): LD 9,314 (18.80%) this is the…
Observer But is the former leader still influential? There’s been a sharp move to Ed Miilband overnight following the publication of today’s Observer which leads on the intervention by the former leader, Neil Kinnock, into the race. On the Betfair exchange the younger Miliband brother tightened from 4/1 to 3/1 on the news while there’s been an easing of the price on his brother, David, who remains the odds-on favourite. This follows earlier suggestions that the “other Ed”, Balls, might…
BBC Results 2010 Will an English leader bring the voters back? After looking at the challenge for the Tories in Scotland it’s also worth looking at parts of England where Labour took a terrible drubbing on May 6th. Just look at the South East – Brown’s party got a smaller share of the vote here, 16.2%, than the Tories got in Scotland. Even worse they lost thirteen of the 17 that they’d held and were left with just four –…
BBC results 2010 election What future for blues north of the border? In 2005, across the United Kingdom, the Conservatives won less than 200 seats; in 2010, they won more than 300. That increase of more than a hundred came entirely in England and Wales; the Scottish Conservatives returned just the one constituency, the same as in 2005. This poses David Cameron and his party several problems. The one of mandate is relatively easily answered, although none of the answers…
Ipsos-MORI After every election Ipsos-MORI produce a table like the one above which becomes a great point of reference for the demographics of what happened. The remarkable feature here is the over-65 group which, as predicted here. were the ones most likely to turn out and vote Tory. Interestingly 2010 follows the pattern previous elections where the group least engaged are younger women. Look at the turnout gap compared with men in the same age group. There’s also a big…
Bestbetting And Ed Miliband continues to edge out The chart shows the movement on the Labour leadership market with Andy Burnham continuing to make progress at the expense of the two Eds – Balls and Miliband – who have seen their prices ease. A lot depends of course on all of them surmounting the next hurdle – getting the required number of 33 MP nominees. I’m on all the top four at prices between 7/1 and 22/1. Mike Smithson
Are Sir Humphrey & co once again running the country? One thing that struck me on reading through the coalition document published yesterday is just how well written it is. This is not something that has been produced by a committee and does not read like the usual product of a negotiation. Some well-thought out and serious drafting has taken place with a superb economy of words. You have to admire, for instance, the way that conflicting policies between the…