Will a big line-up make it harder to predict? Above is a clip from the Guardian on the day that voting packs went out on the last occasion that Labour’s election machinery was used – the June 2007 deputy election. At this point, just seventeen days before the result was announced, the firm favourite at 6/5 was Hilary Benn. Behind him in the betting came Alan Johnson (2/1), John Cruddas (4/1), Harriet Harman 6/1, Hazel Blears 16/1 and Peter Hain…
“..I think I will save the events of the last 45 mins for my memoirs. I wish I could tell u what’s going on, but if I did I’d have to kill u..” Just over half an hour after Tweeting with news that David Laws was planning to resign Iain Dale published another Tweet, featured above, which I have been puzzling over ever since. This came out shortly after 7pm and before the news of the resignation got picked up…
I’m hoping that there’ll be a betting market up quite soon on whether David Laws will return to government as a minister. Certainly the warm tone of David Cameron’s letter seems to indicate that this might be possible. The PM concluded: “I hope that, in time, you will be able to serve again as I think it is absolutely clear that you have a huge amount to offer our country”. Peter Mandelson, it will be recalled, had several comebacks. Clearly…
But will Dave and Nick try to tough it out? One betting market where you can bet on the future of David Laws is the PoliticalSmarkets one on Who will be the first cabinet member to leave? There has been a bit of movement overnight but currently you can get a price of 17% that Laws will be first to go. Speculation about what might happen to the Treasury Secretary has yet to put him into the favourite slot –…
Is the momentum enough to see one over the line? With less than two weeks to go until nominations close, three candidates for the Labour leadership have now received the 33 nominations necessary to secure their place on the ballot: Ed and David Miliband and Ed Balls. Andy Burnham is just half way to the threshold while Diane Abbott and John McDonnell are stuck in single figures. There are still around 100 Labour MP’s yet to declare but with the…
Telegraph Will this really bring Laws down? On reading the story I’m far from convinced. There is just a whiff of homophobia about the way that this is covered and I wonder if the paper would give it the same attention if the landlord had been female. I’ve suggested to the new political betting exchange, PoliticalSmarkets, that it puts a Laws survival market up. I would bet on him remaining. Mike Smithson
Did this prevent a Tory majority? It has long been the case that in American elections, incumbency has been an important factor. Until fairly recently, that was not considered to be the case in British elections. While it was acknowledged that Liberal Democrats could build up sizeable personal followings, the general view was that it was a very minor factor in the far more numerous Conservative/Labour contests. This view must now be challenged, judging by the results from May 6th….