Even if you don’t exclude Don’t Knows the 28% is higher than the Tory voting intention figure in recent polls which means it could be launchpad for a Tory revival. I stick to my previous assessment that foreign affairs will not shift voting intentions. TSE
This market from Ladbrokes on whether our last but one First Lord of the Treasury will win a seat at the next election and I understand why No is such the overwhelming favourite. Boris Johnson is earning serious money and may not want to give that up or have to declare it, nor does leading the Tories in opposition seem appealing to somebody as famously lazy and distracted as Boris Johnson. However I get the he and his allies think…
Today’s Sunday Times has this interesting analogy from Team Sunak about the next general election At Kerridge’s restaurant last Tuesday, a member of Rishi Sunak’s team, who is the victim of a recent break-up, was seeking solace in the Tories’ now troubled relationship with the electorate. “The Conservative party has misbehaved and has been put in the spare room,” he suggested. “We haven’t yet been kicked out of the house completely.” The reason for his hope was the continuing evidence…
There are either 12 or perhaps fewer months to the General Election, and the Labour lead in the polls seems solidly in the mid to high teens. The recent Autumn Statement seems to be having no real effect on that lead. Is it possible for the Tories to close that gap? One possibility mooted is that Reform Party (REFUK) voters will switch to the Conservatives when that GE focuses minds. It does seem as if REFUKs predecessor The Brexit Party…
Ladbrokes have this market on whether a vote of no confidence will be triggered in Rishi Sunak this year. For one to be triggered 15% of Tory MPs need to send a letter to the chairman of the 1922 committee requesting such a vote. I cannot see a trigger event or events during the rest of the year that will see that threshold breached. So far in 2023 we’ve seen a plethora of record breaking by election defeats for Sunak,…
Whilst the policy my might be popular in the wider context of the economy and a cost of living crisis I suspect it won’t move many votes. TSE
Next year’s White House Race will be the sixth to be covered since PB was founded in 2004. But there will be one big difference and that is the order in which states hold their primaries. We are all used to the Iowa caucuses being the first State to divide with the first proper primary being in New Hampshire. This time the Democratic party have been seeking to make the elections take place in it different order although the Republicans…
Like many I thought Sunak would hold the election in October/November 2024 but I am now leaning towards an election held next May, there’s a few advantages for holding it then. Using the budget as tax cutting launchpad for the election campaign. Avoids having an election taking place with the energy prices dominating the agenda during the colder months. It isn’t difficult to imagine OFGEM increasing the price cap next October. An autumn election would see Labour highlighting the second…