Why I now think an early election is likely

Why I now think an early election is likely

Like many I thought Sunak would hold the election in October/November 2024 but I am now leaning towards an election held next May, there’s a few advantages for holding it then.

  1. Using the budget as tax cutting launchpad for the election campaign.
  2. Avoids having an election taking place with the energy prices dominating the agenda during the colder months. It isn’t difficult to imagine OFGEM increasing the price cap next October.
  3. An autumn election would see Labour highlighting the second anniversaries of the Trussterfuck which would dominate the campaign and remind the electorate of why their mortgages are quite so high.
  4. If the current polls are accurate and remain largely where they are next May then the Tory councillors face a bloodbath which could trigger a vote of confidence in Sunak. By holding an election in May preempts that.
  5. An autumn election risks being contaminated by the American presidential election, an intervention by Donald Trump might not be optimal to the Tory cause.

This week’s YouGov poll for the The Times conducted after the autumn statement has seen the Tory share of the vote increase by 4% and cutting the Labour lead by the same amount, The Times note

It is the highest rating since mid-September and only three points below Sunak’s highest-ever rating last April.

The Latin maxim of post hoc ergo propter hoc might apply, or it could be a delayed reaction to the return of David Cameron, but the whole statement seems to be popular which allows the budget 2024 the launchpad for the next general election.

These are the latest odds on Betfair for when the next election will be held.


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