Did the result seep out early in the 2007 deputy race?

Did the result seep out early in the 2007 deputy race?

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Politicalbetting June 24 2007 What caused the last minute rush to Harriet? With punters and pundits looking forward to Saturday’s big announcement on the next Labour leader I thought I’d look back and see what happened the last time this election process was used. Above is a piece published on June 24th 2007 here 75 minutes before the official deputy result was announced. As can be seen Alan Johnson was a rock solid odds-on favourite with the others nowhere. Then,…

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How much “Labour’s to blame” stuff will voters take?

How much “Labour’s to blame” stuff will voters take?

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Home Secretary, Theresa May, has tried to turn the spotlight and put the blame on Labour following the chief inspector of constabulary’s criticism of the police “retreating from the streets” and the data that suggests that one such incident was reported every 10 seconds. I just wonder whether bringing a new element into the “Labour blame game” might be devaluing its effectiveness. My sense is that the government needs to be doing more than simply blaming the “last lot” particularly…

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Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

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Why are punters ignoring the polling? The great mystery of the 2010 Labour leadership race has been that David Miliband has continued to be an odds-on favourite even though the only members’ and trade unionists’ polling since voting began showed that he was losing in these two segments of the electoral college. True the ex-foreign secretary has drifted from 1.2 on Betfair since the publication of the Sunday Times poll eleven days ago but he’s still the heavy odds-on favourite….

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Which one will be smiling on Saturday afternoon?

Which one will be smiling on Saturday afternoon?

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Will YouGov have got this one right? Voting closed dead on 1700 in the election of Labour’s next leader. All the contenders were encourage stragglers right until the end to get votes in online. Now we’ve got a three day wait for the ballot forms in this complex election to be counted. The count is being carried out by the Electoral Reform Society without any Labour or campaign representative there. The ERS has a good reputation for confidentiality and I…

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Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

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Should HE choose the shadow cabinet – not the PLP? Whichever of the brothers wins Labour’s election (and online voting finishes at 5pm) he will inherit a structure which drastically reduces his ability to lead and shape the party in the manner that he thinks fit. For Labour, when in opposition, has an archaic rule that means that the shadow cabinet is elected by MPs and is not chosen by the leader. The winner will be castrated before he starts….

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On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

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First cabinet member to leave Party Price Vince Cable Lib Dem 2/1 William Hague Conservative 4/1 Liam Fox Conservative 5/1 Chris Huhne Lib Dem 8/1 Iain Duncan Smith Conservative 8/1 Theresa May Conservative 14/1 Michael Gove Conservative 16/1 Andrew Lansley Conservative 16/1 Michael Moore Lib Dem 20/1 Andrew Mitchell Conservative 20/1 Nick Clegg Lib Dem 20/1 Owen Paterson Conservative 25/1 Danny Alexander Lib Dem 25/1 Jeremy Hunt Conservative 25/1 Kenneth Clarke Conservative 25/1 Eric Pickles Conservative 25/1 Caroline Spelman Conservative…

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Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

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Without them could Labour have held on? As part of the ongoing row over Tory election tactics the observations of party campaign chief, George Osborne, have been made public. These are due to be published shortly in Dennis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s big academic study – British General Election of 2010. They write: “In an implied admission that the media attention on the debates – preparations, build-up and post-debate analysis – squeezed the amount of discussion of policies a senior…

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Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

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Should punters take notice? Apologies to PBers who are bored by the Labour leadership but this is a huge political betting event which is all going to be resolved on Saturday and many have large sums at risk. The outcome, of course, will have a major impact on British politics for years to come. Labour is electing someone it hopes will be the next Prime Minister. So far today we’ve had Dan Hodges at Labour Uncut saying that DaveM has…

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