Harry Hayfield’s September local by elections summary

Harry Hayfield’s September local by elections summary

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Votes Cast / Seats Won and Change Labour 11,694 votes (40.64%) winning 7 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservatives 8,573 votes (29.79%) winning 5 seats (-3 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 4,611 votes (16.02%) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) SNP 1,382 votes (4.80%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Greens 822 votes (2.86%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Independents 700 votes (2.43%) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time) UKIP 451 votes…

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Did nominating Diane Abbott cost DavidM the election?

Did nominating Diane Abbott cost DavidM the election?

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Would he have fared better without her on the ballot? In early June when David Miliband announced at the last minute that he would nominate Diane Abbott there were those who declared this a master-stroke. For it was argued that the presence of a black woman on the ballot would divert votes from his brother making the latter’s task that much harder. This is how the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul described it at the time: ..”What she will do,…

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Should you take the 3-1 against DM standing aside?

Should you take the 3-1 against DM standing aside?

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How difficult would it be for him to serve? After the extraordinary victory for Ed Miliband on Saturday the focus is now on his elder brother, David, and the role, if any, he would have in the new shadow cabinet. This is how the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour is reporting it: “Ed Miliband’s efforts to offer a new generation of leadership for Labour were overshadowed today by an emotional and political tug of war over whether his vanquished and shattered brother…

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Dilma Rousseff will be the next President of Brazil

Dilma Rousseff will be the next President of Brazil

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Wikimedia Commons Dan Hamilton revisits Brazil one week before the election This time next week Brazil’s 190 million citizens will choose their fourth directly-elected leader since the end of military rule in 1985 and a successor to the centre-left President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Given Brazil’s incredibly efficient system of electronic voting, results can be expected within an hour or so of the close of polls at around 23:00GMT. Voters in Brazil’s twenty six states will choose between centrist…

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How the YouGov poll did against the actual results

How the YouGov poll did against the actual results

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Party members YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YG Mili pref Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Trade unionists YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round < YG Mili pref Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 12 12.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.2 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 14 8.5 0 0 MILIBAND, David 29 27.5 43...

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Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

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Autumn 2007 polling Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sunday Times 16/11/07 41 35 13 YouGov/Telegraph 24/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Sunday Times 06/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Channel 4 04/10/07 36 40 13 YouGov/Telegraph 28/09/07 32 43 15 YouGov/Channel 4 25/09/07 33 44 13 Will they be at 40+ when he makes his 1st speech? Last night the News International daily poll from YouGov had CON 39%: LAB 38%: LD 15% – so the red team was just one point adrift. The big…

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Can anybody beat my 33-1 bet?

Can anybody beat my 33-1 bet?

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What was your betting story? The conclusion of Labour’s leadership election marks the end of a major betting event and something that we’ve been arguing about and punting on for more than three years. Thankfully, from my perspective, EdM came home and I’ve just spent a pleasurable half hour or so transferring my winnings into my bank account. I’d backed EdM at a wide range of prices over a year and the best bet was the 33/1 with Ladbrokes in…

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