Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

Will EdM take Labour back to Sept/Oct ’07 levels?

Autumn 2007 polling Date CON LAB LD
YouGov/Sunday Times 16/11/07 41 35 13
YouGov/Telegraph 24/10/07 41 38 11
YouGov/Sunday Times 06/10/07 41 38 11
YouGov/Channel 4 04/10/07 36 40 13
YouGov/Telegraph 28/09/07 32 43 15
YouGov/Channel 4 25/09/07 33 44 13

Will they be at 40+ when he makes his 1st speech?

Last night the News International daily poll from YouGov had CON 39%: LAB 38%: LD 15% – so the red team was just one point adrift.

The big question for poll watchers is whether Labour will get a boost with their new leader in place and whether that’ll be sustained. For polling during conference season is notoriously volatile in any case and the new leader could add to that.

What a great narrative it would be if Ed’s big speech on Tuesday coincides with the party’s ratings moving back into the 40s – levels that were last seen at the end of September 2007 – just before Gordon Brown pulled the plug on an early general election.

What this will look like at the end of the Tory conference week is a different matter and the real political question is what’s going to happen in the polls after the October 20th spending review statement.

For the moment, however, I think that Labour could touch the 40s and take the lead.

Mike Smithson

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