YouGov: Where 1 Mirror reader = 8 Guardian ones

YouGov: Where 1 Mirror reader = 8 Guardian ones

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YouGov’s newspaper weightings Unweighted number Weighted number “Value” of each reader in the poll Express/Mail 417 301 0.72 Sun/Star 206 429 2.08 Mirror/Record 114 309 2.71 Guardian/Indy 173 62 0.36 FT/Times/Telegraph 224 170 0.76 Other paper 217 232 1.07 No paper 655 505 0.77 Could newspaper weightings be causing distortions? The big polling news overnight was that the YouGov dailly poll reported a share of just 9% for the Lib Dems alongside 40% for the Tories and Labour. In doing…

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Haven’t the LDs only themselves to blame for the fees mess?

Haven’t the LDs only themselves to blame for the fees mess?

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Was it always likely that the pledge would have to be broken? So we are here – Lib Dem betrayal time and an embarrassment for the coalition. But why on earth did Clegg’s party agree to it in the first place because there was always a pretty good chance that it was a promise that couldn’t be kept? Consider two facts. The inquiry into university funding by ex-BP boss John Browne was set up by the last Labour government with…

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Who won PMQs round 4?

Who won PMQs round 4?

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Do both men need to spruce up their acts? I was listening on the radio and maybe it seemed different on TV but neither David Cameron nor Ed Miliband seemed to do particularly well. Cameron was snappy and is not as good as he perhaps should be at soaking up criticism. It was obvious that EdM was likely to raise the photographer appointment to the government payroll and the PM’s response didn’t really convince. Clearly at a time of massive…

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The Mid-Terms….continued

The Mid-Terms….continued

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Nate Silver at the New York Times I like the way Nate Silver is representing this election as all eyes focus on the west coast states of California and Washington which look set to determine the outcome in the Senate. The GOP has made big gains in the House of Representative winning most of the key races. I was struck by this point from Kieran on the previous thread:- “This configuration (Dem Pres, Dem Senate (if it holds), GOP House)…

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The overnight Mid-Terms thread

The overnight Mid-Terms thread

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How’s it going to look for Obama in the morning? Probably a good link to get early news of exit polls and other information is Huffington Post here. The betting has remained very light with only about £6,000 matched on Betfair during the day. Mike Smithson

YouGov blows for the LDs on AV and Labour on the cuts

YouGov blows for the LDs on AV and Labour on the cuts

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“Stick with first past the post or stick with AV?” (YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% Switch to AV 32 24 32 70 Stick with first past the post 43 62 49 14 Wouldn’t vote/don’t know 25 14 19 16 “Blame for the spending cuts?” (YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% CON-LD coalition 20 1 52 5 Last Labour government 46 91 7 69 Both 22 5 25 15 Neither 7 2 13 6 Lots of polling has…

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Is Labour winning the battle for non-voters?

Is Labour winning the battle for non-voters?

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How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) CON at G. Election LAB at G. Election LD at G. Election Did not vote Conservative 84% 1% 2% 7% Labour 2% 62% 15% 15% Lib Dem 5% 5% 74% 11% But how reliable is their support? This is a table that I don’t think we’ve looked at before – what those who now say they are voting for the three main parties did at the last election. The reason the rows…

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Do US politics not matter as much any more?

Do US politics not matter as much any more?

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Mid-Terms Betfair betting markets Amount matched House of Reps Democratic seats £73 House of Reps GOP seats £91 House control £33,971 Senate Democratic seats £0 Senate GOP seats £0 Senate control £64,823 Why are punters shunning the Mid-Terms? Today’s the big one in the US – the Mid-Term elections that take place in every presidency two years the White House race. These are immensely important in political terms because they can often define the final part of a four year…

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