How serious is it for the party’s new leader? The eighteen or so hours since the end of PMQs yesterday the big focus at Westminster has been on Labour’s leader of only ten weeks – Ed Miliband. The write-ups in the papers of his performance have been pretty bad and last night there was a longish feature on Newsnight by Michael Crick about EdM’s position. Yet in spite of all this Labour continues to poll well and the latest PAPA…
Are the fees proposals going to get through? With it looking increasingly likely that almost all Lib Dem MPs will abstain on the student fees issue government business managers have come up with a wheeze that they hope will ensure the measure goes through – the vote will take place in the evening a week tomorrow. The idea according to Sky’s Jon Craig, is that , “MPs from smaller parties like the Democratic Unionists, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists will be…
Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/Politicalbetting 29/11/10 35 40 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 Labour open up a 5 point lead with Angus Reid There’s a new voting intention poll from Angus Reid – only the third to be published by the firm since the general election and the first to come out of PB’s renewed relationship with the Canadian pollster. Like the previous two post-election surveys…
General Election May 6 2010 CON>LAB/LD switchers required Warwickshire North 28 Camborne & Redruth (LD) 34 Thurrock 47 Hendon 54 Oxford West & Abingdon 89 Cardiff North 98 Sherwood 108 Total switchers needed ***458*** Would Labour have hung onto power? As we all are no doubt aware the May 2010 general election finished up with party seat totals that meant that only a combination of the 307 Conservative MPs with the 57 Lib Dem ones could produce a majority government….
i Is the gap really quite narrow? On the student fees issue – what exactly are the NUS demanding? Looking at their website their only real gripe seems to be that they want all courses at all universities whatever the duration to attract exactly the same price. So six years doing medicine at Bristol, or four years doing engineering at Cambridge has exactly the same effect on the graduate as a 3 year degree in basket weaving from Ex-Poly University….
A guest slot on the future of the coalition The above chart shows the actual poll shares achieved at the general elections from 1979 onwards. The 2015 numbers are the current PAPA numbers (Mike’s polling average). It also shows the GE turnout % (green line) and the combined share of Labour plus the LibDems (dotted line). What does it tell us? Firstly, it shows that there is quite some truth in the notion that Labour and the LibDems have historically…
How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) Voted at the 2010 general election Didn’t vote at the 2010 election Conservative supporters 91% 9% Labour supporters 82% 18% Lib Dem supporters 92% 8% The above is taken from the latest ComRs data on its new poll and seeks to break down current supporters into those who said they did vote at the last election and those who, for whatever reason didn’t. Whether you have voted in the past or not…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18 And the yellows drop to 12…