Is the Lib Dem poll slump an image thing?

Is the Lib Dem poll slump an image thing?

Comments 0 Comment

< And what implications for the by-election? One of the most striking features of the opinion poll movements since the general election is the disparity between the performance of the two coalition partners. The Conservatives have never polled less than their election score of 37% with YouGov, although they have been a little lower with other firms. By contrast, the Lib Dems have lost close to two-thirds of theirs if the most recent YouGov survey is on the mark. Other...

Read More Read More

News of a new poll and OES polling rumours

News of a new poll and OES polling rumours

Comments 0 Comment

Could there be more than one by-election poll? There’ve been a lot of rumours about amongst campaigners in Oldham East & Saddleworth that several by-election polls might be in the offing. One suggested that a YouGov OES survey was about to come out – a rumour that has been knocked on the head by the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells. Andrew Hawkins of ComRes, which has carried out surveys at other by-elections, tells me that his firm…

Read More Read More

How will the Chaytor jailing go down in Oldham?

How will the Chaytor jailing go down in Oldham?

Comments 0 Comment

Is the former Labour MP almost a local? So the first of the former Labour MPs to face criminal charges over the MPs expenses, David Chaytor who used to sit for Bury North, has been given an eighteen month jail sentence after pleading guilty. During the case it was said that he’d “siphon off” public money he was not entitled to by providing false documents. His defence said he was was entitled to the money and said that he showed…

Read More Read More

Could FPTP be too ingrained within our culture?

Could FPTP be too ingrained within our culture?

Comments 0 Comment

Spetember 25 2010 – the moment EdM wins the Labour leadership Is this why AV winners are not seen as being legitimate? Aside from the build-up to next Thursday’s OES by-election two things have struck me most during the first week back after the holidays – the kicking that Ed Miliband seems to be getting in the media and the reactions here on PB to the elections for our poster of the year. The common element to both is the…

Read More Read More

Are Labour’s hopes based on the coalition vote splitting?

Are Labour’s hopes based on the coalition vote splitting?

Comments 0 Comment

Saddleworth News But what if yellows/blues are seen as having the best chance? I’m coming to the view that the single most important event in the final week of this campaign will be the opinion poll, now expected at the weekend, and whether it shows the Tories or the Lib Dems as being best placed to beat Labour. For the one reason why Labour are favourites in a seat which they won with 31.9% at the general election is that…

Read More Read More

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

Comments 0 Comment

Is this the group that will destroy LD hopes? Labour has already drawn attention to the decision by the Liberal Democrats to break with tradition and move the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. The effect of the timing was to seemingly disenfranchise up to 1000 students not yet returning for their studies. Cunning manoeuvre? Yep. New politics? Not exactly. However it is another group of voters that should be causing the Lib Dems greater anxiety in the…

Read More Read More

Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

Comments 0 Comment

Oldham E & Saddleworth postal voting Postal ballots issued Valid postal votes cast General Election May 6 2010 10,518 8,316 By-election Jan 13 2011 10,251 ???? Why are the numbers on the decline? We’ve now got the above numbers for the number of postal ballots that have been issued in the by-election which show, extraordinarily, that there’ll be fewer postal voters in next Thursday’s by-election than there were at the general election. So what you might say but the fact…

Read More Read More

Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

Comments 0 Comment

“Victory for the Lib Dems in Oldham is now as unlikely as Manchester United finishing at the bottom of this year’s Premier League with Roy Keane in charge!” – Ken Robertson, Paddy Power” Fine – but how come that you are only offering 7/2 against Elwyn Watkins – the Lib Dem candidate. If it was that remote then surely you’d be happy to to lay bets at 100/1 or longer. Political punters are interested in odds – not hyperbole. It’s…

Read More Read More