And it’s no change on standard voting intention In its first public survey on the coming referendum the February MORI monitor for Reuters has YES on 49% and NO at 37% amongst those who say they are certain to vote. So far we have only seen the headline figures and I’ve no idea about the form or wording of the AV question. The firm always restricts its headline figures to those who say they are certain to vote and we’ll…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 35 38 18 9 Populus/Times 06/02/11 36 39 11 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 23/01/11 ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 42 11 11 YouGov/Sun 23/02/11 36 44 11 9 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 ***PAPA*** LATEST 35.4 40.6 12.4 11.6 With every new poll PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average gets updated and can be found on its own dedicated page. It’s not often…
Shouldn’t last week have led to a re-wording? This is the precise wording of the YouGov AV referendum question that was asked yesterday and the results published last night. “The Conservative-Liberal Democrat government are committed to holding a referendum on changing the electoral system from first-past-thepost (FPTP) to the Alternative Vote (AV) At the moment, under first-past-the-post (FPTP), voters select ONE candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. It has been suggested that this system should be replaced…
Will YouGov add to YES’s misery? With just ten weeks and one day left before the country votes in the referendum a new survey of members of the YouGov polling panel found that YES has dropped to 34% with NO edging up to 41%. The firm used what has been its standard question which when put last produced a 37-37 response. So with this week’s two polls both showing a move to NO it looks as though those opposed to…
Methodology comparison YouGov ICM Sampling Sample is restricted to members of its polling panel – those who have registered with the firm and on whom the firm has a mass of data. The firm polls by phone making randomised calls to residential phone numbers throughout Britain. Theoretically anybody with a land-line can take part in a survey. Political weighting To ensure balanced samples this is done by party ID based on the firm’s own data. This can be controversial –…
Which is most to blame for the cuts? (YouGov) CON-LD coalition Last Labour government Both of them Neither 21/02/11 25 41 24 5 07/02/11 25 38 26 6 25/01/11 26 40 24 5 10/01/11 22 40 25 8 11/12/10 23 41 24 7 15/11/10 22 43 23 7 07/10/10 17 47 20 10 20/09/10 21 44 22 7 06/09/10 22 45 20 6 31/08/10 23 45 20 6 16/08/10 22 45 21 6 02/08/10 22 45 20 6 19/07/10 21…
Aljazeera What’s the significance for Britain, Europe and the World? After a 22 second appearance on TV last night it seems that Gaddafi’s grip on his country could be coming to an end. Libyan ambassadors in many countries have already dissociated themselves from the Tripoli regime while a number of Libyan air force pilots have flown their planes to other countries. There comes a moment at times like this when a regime’s authority collapses and that seems to be happening…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 37 (-7) 37 (-1) Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. With turnout filter the results was YES 51% NO 49% YouGov/Sun 18/02/11 34 (-5) 30 (-9) Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37…