Ipsos-MORI has 12 point YES lead amongst those certain to vote

Ipsos-MORI has 12 point YES lead amongst those certain to vote

And it’s no change on standard voting intention

In its first public survey on the coming referendum the February MORI monitor for Reuters has YES on 49% and NO at 37% amongst those who say they are certain to vote.

So far we have only seen the headline figures and I’ve no idea about the form or wording of the AV question.

The firm always restricts its headline figures to those who say they are certain to vote and we’ll have to wait until the full data is published to see what the overall figure was.

This is very good news for the YES camp because in what’s likely to be a lowish turnout election the question of voting certainty will be critical.

If MORI is right it suggests that those who want change are more committed to to going out and voting for it.

So this week’s three polls on the referendum have produced very different pictures. YouGov has NO 7% ahead, ICM has the two sides even but when turnout weighting is taken into account its 51-49, and now MORI has a big YES lead. YouGov was using an old question and unlike the two phone pollsters, ICM and MORI, does not screen for turnout.

The pollsters’ fight to win the referendum polling race looks set to be almost as intriguing as the outcome itself.

The firm’s standard Westminster voting intentions show Labour still with a 10 point lead. The shares were CON 33: LAB 43: LD 13.

Mike Smithson

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